{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7215bdc9-54f4-4831-a681-96aee1debb26", "symbol": "ESPE", "name": "Espe S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.269, "architecture_energy": 44.737, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.79, "rotation_up": 33.52, "upward_expansion": 67.19, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 21.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.653333, 5.753818, 5.333667, 4.789398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.66, "trend_reference": 4.135667, "distance_from_trend": 0.368582, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.177603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.781217, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 34.699111, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.899329, "excess_performance": 0.728437, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.368582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.286366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.781217, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.638905, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.346991, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.375607, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.899329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.82971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50250, "relative_activity": 0.489945, "balance": 2.82971, "dry_up": 0.630713, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081816, "annualized_volatility": 0.565046, "from_high_reference": -0.092949, "from_low_reference": 1.096296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.135667, "fair_value_reference": 3.177603, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009119, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.271493, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-23", "close": 2.628987, "volume": 87000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-01", "close": 3.257658, "volume": 408000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-08", 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"energy": 89.790892, "activity_lines": [ 5.938667, 5.386, 4.48081, 4.049484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.0, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 94875.0, "trend": 3.691, "fair_value": 3.076539, "relative_strength": 52.05395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.644294, "energy": 81.949351, "activity_lines": [ 5.970667, 5.599818, 4.681905, 4.204688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.94, "volume": 45750, "typical_volume": 96337.5, "trend": 3.787667, "fair_value": 3.099447, "relative_strength": 49.573262, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.330065, "energy": 68.229684, "activity_lines": [ 5.964, 5.753273, 4.862714, 4.349785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.52, "volume": 69750, "typical_volume": 98550.0, "trend": 3.871667, "fair_value": 3.118658, "relative_strength": 39.744713, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.887649, "energy": 65.133591, "activity_lines": [ 5.817333, 5.782182, 4.989714, 4.461548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.68, "volume": 107250, "typical_volume": 100537.5, "trend": 3.960333, "fair_value": 3.138826, "relative_strength": 42.678767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.819922, "energy": 57.460824, "activity_lines": [ 5.750667, 5.800182, 5.119952, 4.578215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.62, "volume": 31500, "typical_volume": 101287.5, "trend": 4.046333, "fair_value": 3.15821, "relative_strength": 38.959512, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.057622, "energy": 51.476785, "activity_lines": [ 5.684, 5.784364, 5.231238, 4.68529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.66, "volume": 50250, "typical_volume": 102562.5, "trend": 4.135667, "fair_value": 3.177603, "relative_strength": 34.699111, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.268642, "energy": 44.73681, "activity_lines": [ 5.653333, 5.753818, 5.333667, 4.789398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }