{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7217a82c-cfac-4a56-bb4f-a780cb128e33", "symbol": "600509", "name": "Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.431, "architecture_energy": 42.975, "architecture_maturity": 15.074, "architecture_confidence": 81.263, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.47, "rotation_up": 14.27, "upward_expansion": 6.06, "deceleration": 46.02, "rotation_down": 59.92, "downward_expansion": 79.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.537333, 7.694258, 8.094532, 8.271448 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.73, "trend_reference": 8.479838, "distance_from_trend": -0.088426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.773881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141148, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.87178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100116, "excess_performance": -0.056913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.141148, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.48412, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116314039, "relative_activity": 0.561613, "balance": 1.48412, "dry_up": 0.797297, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126069, "annualized_volatility": 0.477257, "from_high_reference": -0.31283, "from_low_reference": 0.209703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.479838, "fair_value_reference": 6.773881, "structural_low": 7.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.018003, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.013732, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.187192, "worst_return": -0.228125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017843, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005609, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221416, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023679, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01193, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.3049, "worst_return": -0.152778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"trend": 8.527172, "fair_value": 6.764594, "relative_strength": -7.578815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.031995, "energy": 63.584682, "activity_lines": [ 7.511333, 7.870182, 8.227867, 8.380137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.61, "volume": 181065293, "typical_volume": 218162506.15, "trend": 8.497505, "fair_value": 6.768668, "relative_strength": -5.643696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.603986, "energy": 57.733453, "activity_lines": [ 7.482, 7.753712, 8.150033, 8.320964 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.73, "volume": 116314039, "typical_volume": 207107049.35, "trend": 8.479838, "fair_value": 6.773881, "relative_strength": -6.87178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.430558, "energy": 42.975289, "activity_lines": [ 7.537333, 7.694258, 8.094532, 8.271448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }