{ "ticker": { "uuid": "722285fe-98c3-49f4-9836-f9c4d773ce97", "symbol": "SVRA", "name": "Savara Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.137, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.713, "architecture_energy": 19.457, "architecture_maturity": 23.447, "architecture_confidence": 79.986, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.63, "rotation_up": 34.2, "upward_expansion": 62.53, "deceleration": 83.94, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 14.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.639333, 5.693636, 5.538381, 5.48914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.83, "trend_reference": 5.478333, "distance_from_trend": 0.064192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.156346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.402674, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.859582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1, "excess_performance": -0.087454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.402674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082256, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008596, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928286, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7197481, "relative_activity": 0.935769, "balance": 0.928286, "dry_up": 1.103481, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094173, "annualized_volatility": 0.403769, "from_high_reference": -0.167737, "from_low_reference": 1.399177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.478333, "fair_value_reference": 4.156346, "structural_low": 4.695, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.028774, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.011965, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.222004, "worst_return": -0.122186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069565, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.097011, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.513043, "worst_return": -0.188679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.371069, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.556522, "worst_return": -0.344519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.161492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.162855, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.817391, "worst_return": -0.494407, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020202, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1566, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.199468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006993, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070175, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.375566, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.177215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.634831, 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40.092107, "activity_lines": [ 5.787333, 5.516545, 5.412143, 5.438903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.03, "volume": 8990050, "typical_volume": 8009992.45, "trend": 5.532667, "fair_value": 4.105128, "relative_strength": 7.605493, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.771654, "energy": 52.625562, "activity_lines": [ 5.932667, 5.638909, 5.47281, 5.469075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.52, "volume": 6804305, "typical_volume": 7831059.0, "trend": 5.515, "fair_value": 4.118526, "relative_strength": 1.792312, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.861955, "energy": 46.519237, "activity_lines": [ 5.845333, 5.652, 5.482524, 5.468258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.51, "volume": 10806140, "typical_volume": 8090175.45, "trend": 5.483667, "fair_value": 4.131859, "relative_strength": 2.377555, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.460443, "energy": 33.074302, "activity_lines": [ 5.737333, 5.658, 5.493667, 5.467935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.46, "volume": 9141844, "typical_volume": 8229793.6, "trend": 5.477667, "fair_value": 4.143846, "relative_strength": 0.100485, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.800876, "energy": 6.837579, "activity_lines": [ 5.612, 5.646182, 5.498905, 5.466409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.83, "volume": 7197481, "typical_volume": 7691517.5, "trend": 5.478333, "fair_value": 4.156346, "relative_strength": 0.859582, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.713433, "energy": 19.457, "activity_lines": [ 5.639333, 5.693636, 5.538381, 5.48914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }