{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7224c4d9-1f9f-4cfe-b95f-745f7703a64e", "symbol": "QCLU", "name": "First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.817, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.52, "architecture_energy": 46.816, "architecture_maturity": 3.523, "architecture_confidence": 71.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.18, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 22.06, "deceleration": 55.5, "rotation_down": 68.6, "downward_expansion": 49.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.794, 20.801727, 21.822167, 21.361613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.305, "trend_reference": 20.699083, "distance_from_trend": -0.019039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.285905, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328348, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.567851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07505, "excess_performance": 0.023814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074259, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07505, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.420749, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86605, "relative_activity": 1.684952, "balance": 0.420749, "dry_up": 2.680227, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085314, "annualized_volatility": 0.330466, "from_high_reference": -0.226181, "from_low_reference": 0.544694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.699083, "fair_value_reference": 15.285905, "structural_low": 16.51, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.074825, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073335, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.108425, "worst_return": -0.103441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.053979, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.144323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.029412, "worst_return": -0.218512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.082378, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217879, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.053422, "worst_return": -0.249186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.27, "volume": 22040, "typical_volume": 10064.6, "trend": 19.40725, "fair_value": 23.395801, "relative_strength": -12.239347, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.896846, 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.723477, "energy": 30.302907, "activity_lines": [ 23.1415, 23.641909, 22.491667, 21.528968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.455, "volume": 99538, "typical_volume": 33265.45, "trend": 20.477833, "fair_value": 15.292604, "relative_strength": 10.678384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.056606, "energy": 25.079468, "activity_lines": [ 22.449167, 23.240955, 22.512298, 21.600564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.875, "volume": 161332, "typical_volume": 39014.15, "trend": 20.548667, "fair_value": 15.286434, "relative_strength": 1.154856, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.148615, "energy": 22.933608, "activity_lines": [ 21.424834, 22.572364, 22.372678, 21.561672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.33, "volume": 106044, "typical_volume": 39323.8, "trend": 20.596583, "fair_value": 15.27895, "relative_strength": -3.147684, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.267706, "energy": 40.408729, "activity_lines": [ 20.4895, 21.855591, 22.175167, 21.483048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.047501, "volume": 197064, "typical_volume": 48044.85, "trend": 20.638167, "fair_value": 15.274078, "relative_strength": -6.033714, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.182398, "energy": 44.62781, "activity_lines": [ 19.823, 21.164228, 21.941869, 21.383108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.305, "volume": 86605, "typical_volume": 51399.1, "trend": 20.699083, "fair_value": 15.285905, "relative_strength": -0.567851, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.519655, "energy": 46.815768, "activity_lines": [ 19.794, 20.801727, 21.822167, 21.361613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }