{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7226cee9-968e-4b3d-8876-abcad4ea8e8c", "symbol": "CWEN", "name": "Clearway Energy Inc Class C", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.705, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.499, "architecture_energy": 71.472, "architecture_maturity": 13.316, "architecture_confidence": 89.026, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.4, "rotation_up": 11.01, "upward_expansion": 16.29, "deceleration": 38.22, "rotation_down": 73.02, "downward_expansion": 91.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.462, 33.506545, 35.503287, 36.328156 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.65, "trend_reference": 36.953134, "distance_from_trend": -0.116448, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.434794, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.240485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134899, "excess_performance": -0.260523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116448, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014645, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237253, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17357, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.341612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6550214, "relative_activity": 1.162221, "balance": 0.341612, "dry_up": 1.043908, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079276, "annualized_volatility": 0.301998, "from_high_reference": -0.217777, "from_low_reference": 0.223618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.953134, "fair_value_reference": 27.434794, "structural_low": 30.185, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.032066, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.010556, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.134201, "worst_return": -0.13913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.127487, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.182913, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.316893, "worst_return": -0.247465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.13807, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.13766, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.287634, "worst_return": -0.081124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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37.685764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.67, "volume": 5256737, "typical_volume": 5462576.4, "trend": 36.915271, "fair_value": 27.165493, "relative_strength": -11.166947, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.247906, "energy": 60.061934, "activity_lines": [ 34.818667, 36.359902, 37.417083, 37.480723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.41, "volume": 5736713, "typical_volume": 5429781.85, "trend": 36.966245, "fair_value": 27.229377, "relative_strength": -10.28101, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.032485, "energy": 65.638884, "activity_lines": [ 34.076667, 35.692839, 36.994813, 37.254576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.09, "volume": 4659657, "typical_volume": 5483482.6, "trend": 36.955637, "fair_value": 27.293729, "relative_strength": -13.184618, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.981683, "energy": 80.321174, "activity_lines": [ 33.165333, 34.864191, 36.465918, 36.93998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.73, "volume": 6587037, "typical_volume": 5548155.65, "trend": 36.907634, "fair_value": 27.363034, "relative_strength": -14.841905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.690622, "energy": 79.731225, "activity_lines": [ 32.489333, 34.039972, 35.926407, 36.602842 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.65, "volume": 6550214, "typical_volume": 5635943.3, "trend": 36.953134, "fair_value": 27.434794, "relative_strength": -15.240485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.499213, "energy": 71.472007, "activity_lines": [ 32.462, 33.506545, 35.503287, 36.328156 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }