{ "ticker": { "uuid": "722a9a44-bf27-4a09-842d-933f99d00bf7", "symbol": "IPL", "name": "India Pesticides Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.147, "architecture_energy": 41.694, "architecture_maturity": 23.076, "architecture_confidence": 78.7, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.06, "rotation_up": 17.52, "upward_expansion": 23.64, "deceleration": 49.82, "rotation_down": 61.41, "downward_expansion": 46.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.41533, 154.263453, 156.854476, 155.580946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 145.289993, "trend_reference": 155.132667, "distance_from_trend": -0.063447, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 211.567263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.411022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138052, "excess_performance": -0.094343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063447, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039775, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138052, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.128821, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1565730, "relative_activity": 0.638599, "balance": 0.128821, "dry_up": 0.772501, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069537, "annualized_volatility": 0.387295, "from_high_reference": -0.409006, "from_low_reference": 0.16232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.132667, "fair_value_reference": 211.567263, "structural_low": 125.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016451, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.014702, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.354852, "worst_return": -0.076938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.312875, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.310868, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.332704, "worst_return": -0.029779, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.156848, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.090424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293018, "worst_return": 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"direction": 8.316217, "energy": 7.77402, "activity_lines": [ 160.971333, 161.603818, 158.444429, 157.285872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 151.660004, "volume": 4448676, "typical_volume": 2432919.8, "trend": 157.438001, "fair_value": 212.793992, "relative_strength": -11.801019, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.488495, "energy": 6.231686, "activity_lines": [ 157.792668, 159.455273, 158.150811, 156.866754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.979996, "volume": 948441, "typical_volume": 2456686.0, "trend": 156.640668, "fair_value": 212.366554, "relative_strength": -10.162225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.816371, "energy": 17.109385, "activity_lines": [ 154.669999, 157.469454, 157.724524, 156.385592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 154.779999, "volume": 613281, "typical_volume": 2432713.4, "trend": 155.901334, "fair_value": 212.014614, "relative_strength": -8.974119, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.020647, "energy": 14.504052, "activity_lines": [ 153.833999, 156.633272, 157.772572, 156.265549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.289993, "volume": 1565730, "typical_volume": 2451818.55, "trend": 155.132667, "fair_value": 211.567263, "relative_strength": -14.411022, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.147406, "energy": 41.69389, "activity_lines": [ 150.41533, 154.263453, 156.854476, 155.580946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }