{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7236d105-61ce-41ec-bfa3-d19d196a2a23", "symbol": "HETA4", "name": "Hercules S.A - F\u00e1brica de Talheres", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.002, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.538, "architecture_energy": 69.921, "architecture_maturity": 8.3, "architecture_confidence": 84.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.5, "rotation_up": 11.63, "upward_expansion": 18.11, "deceleration": 34.31, "rotation_down": 74.24, "downward_expansion": 91.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.800667, 4.933455, 5.048905, 5.070688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.8, "trend_reference": 5.072667, "distance_from_trend": -0.053752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.668974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.613841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020408, "excess_performance": 0.03664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053752, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000131, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153286, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.117647, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.117647, "dry_up": 0.930233, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04984, "annualized_volatility": 0.324403, "from_high_reference": -0.172414, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.072667, "fair_value_reference": 5.668974, "structural_low": 4.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005291, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048842, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.005319, "worst_return": -0.095604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.116369, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.170392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.051418, "worst_return": -0.181319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.184939, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.199355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.024823, "worst_return": -0.345055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.345823, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.564431, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.131206, "worst_return": -0.56044, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017513, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090741, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.03, "volume": 9600, "typical_volume": 4550.0, "trend": 5.029667, "fair_value": 7.801282, "relative_strength": 21.718973, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.518841, "energy": 52.335648, 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5.099333, "fair_value": 5.746474, "relative_strength": -3.099542, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.665542, "energy": 13.867769, "activity_lines": [ 5.144, 5.153455, 5.182095, 5.142452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.49, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 175.0, "trend": 5.115667, "fair_value": 5.741346, "relative_strength": 0.265322, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.795657, "energy": 36.292959, "activity_lines": [ 5.285333, 5.193818, 5.216, 5.167656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.81, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 180.0, "trend": 5.109333, "fair_value": 5.72859, "relative_strength": -13.22304, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.201799, "energy": 12.452798, "activity_lines": [ 5.161333, 5.115818, 5.182333, 5.147935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.8, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 190.0, "trend": 5.102667, "fair_value": 5.717179, "relative_strength": -10.583066, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.487038, "energy": 16.162968, "activity_lines": [ 5.040667, 5.053636, 5.148143, 5.127978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 190.0, "trend": 5.096, "fair_value": 5.702051, "relative_strength": -9.989129, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.256611, "energy": 47.835249, "activity_lines": [ 4.927333, 5.009273, 5.114429, 5.108452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.8, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 215.0, "trend": 5.089333, "fair_value": 5.685513, "relative_strength": -11.17828, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.914244, "energy": 58.419695, "activity_lines": [ 4.847333, 4.970364, 5.08119, 5.089355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 215.0, "trend": 5.072667, "fair_value": 5.668974, "relative_strength": -7.613841, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.53784, "energy": 69.920647, "activity_lines": [ 4.800667, 4.933455, 5.048905, 5.070688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }