{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7237bd2f-cb94-400d-a8be-08f8e76965cd", "symbol": "DJSC", "name": "iShares EURO STOXX Small UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.583, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.198, "architecture_energy": 79.537, "architecture_maturity": 33.339, "architecture_confidence": 78.893, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.08, "rotation_up": 68.65, "upward_expansion": 90.88, "deceleration": 45.22, "rotation_down": 16.56, "downward_expansion": 17.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.608001, 53.155543, 52.543337, 51.852868 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.650002, "trend_reference": 51.231207, "distance_from_trend": 0.066733, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.121907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238614, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.385579, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062736, "excess_performance": -0.108156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066733, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031915, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062736, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.448339, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4377, "relative_activity": 0.43386, "balance": 4.448339, "dry_up": 0.73621, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02044, "annualized_volatility": 0.186373, "from_high_reference": -0.004009, "from_low_reference": 0.216337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.231207, "fair_value_reference": 44.121907, "structural_low": 44.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.013505, "positive_rate": 0.655172, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": 0.002899, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.056976, "worst_return": -0.071885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006406, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.017827, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.121681, "worst_return": -0.041344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036185, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066242, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.118798, "worst_return": 0.024438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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50.953863, "fair_value": 43.940118, "relative_strength": -5.084085, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.785571, "energy": 42.309385, "activity_lines": [ 52.608001, 52.581883, 51.965145, 51.443462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.75, "volume": 12632, "typical_volume": 10884.7, "trend": 51.100353, "fair_value": 44.027134, "relative_strength": -4.366445, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.350588, "energy": 52.962352, "activity_lines": [ 53.020001, 52.802509, 52.225393, 51.623858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.650002, "volume": 4377, "typical_volume": 10088.5, "trend": 51.231207, "fair_value": 44.121907, "relative_strength": -5.385579, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.197916, "energy": 79.536715, "activity_lines": [ 53.608001, 53.155543, 52.543337, 51.852868 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }