{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7239693a-d96c-4c41-9c6e-00c3fd5f3477", "symbol": "LMBS", "name": "FIRST TRUST LOW DURATION OPPORTUNITIES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.751, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.919, "architecture_energy": 5.988, "architecture_maturity": 26.115, "architecture_confidence": 72.583, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.53, "rotation_up": 31.63, "upward_expansion": 11.61, "deceleration": 48.22, "rotation_down": 37.31, "downward_expansion": 46.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.537784, 49.547983, 49.560751, 49.565004 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.6352, "trend_reference": 49.56381, "distance_from_trend": 0.00144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.363899, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.935797, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002304, "excess_performance": -0.18515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00144, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003561, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032983, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002304, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.994578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2285200, "relative_activity": 0.908616, "balance": 0.994578, "dry_up": 0.928588, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013326, "annualized_volatility": 0.024093, "from_high_reference": -0.043638, "from_low_reference": 0.043979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.56381, "fair_value_reference": 46.363899, "structural_low": 47.544256, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.001332, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.009918, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.018188, "worst_return": -0.019025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001477, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003025, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.040557, "worst_return": -0.020415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01826, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.062369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04934, "worst_return": -0.010937, 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"volume": 2258042, "typical_volume": 2569558.45, "trend": 49.541013, "fair_value": 46.268353, "relative_strength": -8.057668, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.985586, "energy": 11.416932, "activity_lines": [ 49.517415, 49.546964, 49.557819, 49.563041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.49, "volume": 2113692, "typical_volume": 2557232.85, "trend": 49.55376, "fair_value": 46.315604, "relative_strength": -8.056853, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.869109, "energy": 12.892222, "activity_lines": [ 49.498246, 49.534307, 49.552369, 49.55975 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.6352, "volume": 2285200, "typical_volume": 2515034.4, "trend": 49.56381, "fair_value": 46.363899, "relative_strength": -11.935797, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.918696, "energy": 5.988124, "activity_lines": [ 49.537784, 49.547983, 49.560751, 49.565004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }