{ "ticker": { "uuid": "723e5921-18a9-42f4-a47e-ee15d14ec004", "symbol": "002864", "name": "Shaanxi Panlong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.576, "architecture_energy": 21.614, "architecture_maturity": 75.803, "architecture_confidence": 71.721, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.6, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 29.87, "downward_expansion": 57.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.304842, 21.037085, 21.51595, 22.486347 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.99, "trend_reference": 23.915189, "distance_from_trend": -0.080501, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.071975, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.200878, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.197815, "excess_performance": -0.205215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055501, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080925, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.197815, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.186443, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15474876, "relative_activity": 0.844948, "balance": 1.186443, "dry_up": 1.425415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092136, "annualized_volatility": 0.29588, "from_high_reference": -0.325589, "from_low_reference": 0.1708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.915189, "fair_value_reference": 23.071975, "structural_low": 18.782033, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.006476, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.009854, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.388489, "worst_return": -0.152366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090339, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.032454, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.347305, "worst_return": -0.10757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028516, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028291, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.286639, "worst_return": -0.253711, "sufficient": false }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.431982, "volume": 48475746, "typical_volume": 18516146.15, "trend": 24.219951, "fair_value": 23.229811, "relative_strength": -7.208467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.701137, "energy": 34.33643, "activity_lines": [ 21.265012, 21.104452, 22.026179, 23.092833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.18, "volume": 25854398, "typical_volume": 18605733.45, "trend": 24.076702, "fair_value": 23.165579, "relative_strength": -16.390788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.662598, "energy": 31.095759, "activity_lines": [ 21.059816, 20.892844, 21.756449, 22.832191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.690001, "volume": 14618526, "typical_volume": 18545046.8, "trend": 23.963887, "fair_value": 23.110245, "relative_strength": -12.561579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.472542, "energy": 26.714422, "activity_lines": [ 21.01456, 20.832191, 21.563068, 22.613694 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.99, "volume": 15474876, "typical_volume": 18314582.25, "trend": 23.915189, "fair_value": 23.071975, "relative_strength": -11.200878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.57601, "energy": 21.613962, "activity_lines": [ 21.304842, 21.037085, 21.51595, 22.486347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }