{ "ticker": { "uuid": "724078b0-b4f5-4c6e-a849-c17814b3861d", "symbol": "BPP", "name": "Banpu Power Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 95.973, "architecture_energy": 91.629, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.957, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.33, "rotation_up": 86.64, "upward_expansion": 94.78, "deceleration": 41.87, "rotation_down": 8.04, "downward_expansion": 19.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.98, 12.307273, 11.9894, 11.925969 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.0, "trend_reference": 11.772631, "distance_from_trend": 0.274142, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.591038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416292, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.335384, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.391604, "excess_performance": 0.199279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.274142, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416292, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.29392, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.163354, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111489, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.391604, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 36.67913, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60786200, "relative_activity": 16.046704, "balance": 36.67913, "dry_up": 4.328426, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041538, "annualized_volatility": 0.381797, "from_high_reference": -0.019608, "from_low_reference": 0.963434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.772631, "fair_value_reference": 10.591038, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000172, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.016353, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.532934, "worst_return": -0.117187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.104457, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.544379, "worst_return": -0.150685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.044843, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.002936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.508463, "worst_return": -0.09573, "sufficient": false 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"activity_lines": [ 11.246667, 11.44, 11.615504, 11.628312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.7, "volume": 670000, "typical_volume": 790210.0, "trend": 11.610165, "fair_value": 10.574228, "relative_strength": -7.824781, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.844177, "energy": 33.204949, "activity_lines": [ 11.386667, 11.461818, 11.609209, 11.632329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.0, "volume": 4799500, "typical_volume": 973520.0, "trend": 11.592603, "fair_value": 10.57456, "relative_strength": -6.875379, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.070182, "energy": 6.528539, "activity_lines": [ 11.613333, 11.541818, 11.633573, 11.65748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 895495.0, "trend": 11.626832, "fair_value": 10.574357, "relative_strength": -7.546188, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.316941, "energy": 21.910893, "activity_lines": [ 11.793333, 11.62, 11.655823, 11.683764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 835380.0, "trend": 11.618981, "fair_value": 10.573618, "relative_strength": -6.851337, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.427576, "energy": 40.160556, "activity_lines": [ 11.92, 11.690909, 11.679193, 11.707839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.0, "volume": 60786200, "typical_volume": 3788080.0, "trend": 11.772631, "fair_value": 10.591038, "relative_strength": 16.335384, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.973393, "energy": 91.629386, "activity_lines": [ 12.98, 12.307273, 11.9894, 11.925969 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }