{ "ticker": { "uuid": "724a2bf4-f660-49ab-bf3d-739c08195927", "symbol": "300193", "name": "Shenzhen Jasic Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.461, "architecture_energy": 49.321, "architecture_maturity": 32.701, "architecture_confidence": 94.978, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.83, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 7.38, "deceleration": 48.34, "rotation_down": 57.23, "downward_expansion": 80.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.484, 7.580783, 7.827261, 8.118466 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.58, "trend_reference": 8.518306, "distance_from_trend": -0.110152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.254782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.101224, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.185822, "excess_performance": -0.193221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053066, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081744, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038943, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185822, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17355320, "relative_activity": 0.655119, "balance": 0.520533, "dry_up": 0.752774, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065706, "annualized_volatility": 0.282917, "from_high_reference": -0.249505, "from_low_reference": 0.06014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.518306, "fair_value_reference": 8.254782, "structural_low": 7.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.020633, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.009553, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.123579, "worst_return": -0.122103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.057219, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.040039, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.190818, "worst_return": -0.278502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048764, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039289, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.163352, "worst_return": -0.281899, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055202, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020112, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02139, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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"direction": -75.935025, "energy": 52.200874, "activity_lines": [ 7.546409, 7.626389, 7.949396, 8.254935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.48, "volume": 16886877, "typical_volume": 28183616.15, "trend": 8.563973, "fair_value": 8.249411, "relative_strength": -14.586389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.455883, "energy": 51.478629, "activity_lines": [ 7.493333, 7.586586, 7.878828, 8.181948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.58, "volume": 17355320, "typical_volume": 26491852.65, "trend": 8.518306, "fair_value": 8.254782, "relative_strength": -17.101224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.461464, "energy": 49.320704, "activity_lines": [ 7.484, 7.580783, 7.827261, 8.118466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }