{ "ticker": { "uuid": "724f9a95-4a4f-45a3-af41-dd12969fba9f", "symbol": "603779", "name": "WEILONG GRAPE WINE CO., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 87.713, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.855, "architecture_energy": 11.892, "architecture_maturity": 32.78, "architecture_confidence": 77.353, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.34, "rotation_up": 20.06, "upward_expansion": 40.24, "deceleration": 81.25, "rotation_down": 32.11, "downward_expansion": 31.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.482667, 7.639273, 8.022381, 7.776258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.7, "trend_reference": 7.444667, "distance_from_trend": 0.034297, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.28147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070213, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.557842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.144131, "excess_performance": 0.187335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034297, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04467, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070213, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065578, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097737, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144131, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98132994, "relative_activity": 1.026959, "balance": 0.730489, "dry_up": 1.771503, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.219381, "annualized_volatility": 0.844158, "from_high_reference": -0.469697, "from_low_reference": 0.348511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.444667, "fair_value_reference": 8.28147, "structural_low": 5.71, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.071141, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.022152, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.076301, "worst_return": -0.202186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082955, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.125332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.643972, "worst_return": -0.119126, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071782, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003881, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.242553, "worst_return": -0.226229, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.477691, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.539231, "energy": 17.076754, "activity_lines": [ 7.898, 8.279091, 8.138333, 7.788946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.92, "volume": 275704100, "typical_volume": 86396853.35, "trend": 7.376, "fair_value": 8.319638, "relative_strength": -1.460563, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.78101, "energy": 7.892881, "activity_lines": [ 7.583333, 7.922545, 8.063238, 7.760043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.33, "volume": 148530387, "typical_volume": 92485912.2, "trend": 7.402667, "fair_value": 8.298311, "relative_strength": 4.117676, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.234595, "energy": 11.603726, "activity_lines": [ 7.467333, 7.695091, 8.026476, 7.757075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.7, "volume": 98132994, "typical_volume": 95556874.4, "trend": 7.444667, "fair_value": 8.28147, "relative_strength": 6.557842, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.854664, "energy": 11.891613, "activity_lines": [ 7.482667, 7.639273, 8.022381, 7.776258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }