{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7257bbed-ab46-48f8-af03-ad3c17e27035", "symbol": "NXL", "name": "Nuix Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.909, "architecture_energy": 18.508, "architecture_maturity": 98.154, "architecture_confidence": 89.659, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.21, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 15.71, "deceleration": 42.29, "rotation_down": 33.38, "downward_expansion": 63.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.284, 1.261909, 1.301595, 1.341903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.385, "trend_reference": 1.421667, "distance_from_trend": -0.025791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.746955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.495805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.843283, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.073579, "excess_performance": -0.137284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125038, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.495805, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036975, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014266, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.653414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3683402, "relative_activity": 0.757886, "balance": 0.653414, "dry_up": 0.801842, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109414, "annualized_volatility": 0.784699, "from_high_reference": -0.586567, "from_low_reference": 0.294393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.421667, "fair_value_reference": 2.746955, "structural_low": 1.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.064755, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.067746, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.308756, "worst_return": -0.344262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.127194, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.133429, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.056522, "worst_return": -0.309309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.239011, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.251279, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.190476, "worst_return": -0.27027, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103774, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.815126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.325826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.201201, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", 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6432207.45, "trend": 1.480333, "fair_value": 2.750801, "relative_strength": -34.857708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.224564, "energy": 61.126438, "activity_lines": [ 1.220333, 1.268455, 1.317857, 1.376989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.165, "volume": 3119984, "typical_volume": 5989686.3, "trend": 1.456, "fair_value": 2.74859, "relative_strength": -36.474564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.061905, "energy": 57.309279, "activity_lines": [ 1.203333, 1.242545, 1.299119, 1.356645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.28, "volume": 4489523, "typical_volume": 5846514.65, "trend": 1.4375, "fair_value": 2.747244, "relative_strength": -30.976613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.586542, "energy": 35.147268, "activity_lines": [ 1.231333, 1.242364, 1.2945, 1.34529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.385, "volume": 3683402, "typical_volume": 4860097.55, "trend": 1.421667, "fair_value": 2.746955, "relative_strength": -26.843283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.909031, "energy": 18.50754, "activity_lines": [ 1.284, 1.261909, 1.301595, 1.341903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }