{ "ticker": { "uuid": "725951f7-a4b5-4b14-82ec-773ec9e99c63", "symbol": "ODET", "name": "Compagnie de l'Odet", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.5, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -19.806, "architecture_energy": 36.375, "architecture_maturity": 49.125, "architecture_confidence": 94.338, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.68, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 44.43, "deceleration": 86.31, "rotation_down": 51.72, "downward_expansion": 36.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 1367.066667, 1405.553167, 1418.833196, 1394.907214 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1326.0, "trend_reference": 1365.542944, "distance_from_trend": -0.028958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1425.746476, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.069961, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.181647, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004545, "excess_performance": -0.048766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024094, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.069961, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004545, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494144, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1897, "relative_activity": 0.992752, "balance": 0.494144, "dry_up": 0.811288, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035925, "annualized_volatility": 0.267181, "from_high_reference": -0.130544, "from_low_reference": 0.20765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1365.542944, "fair_value_reference": 1425.746476, "structural_low": 1098.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02288, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.045175, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.131004, "worst_return": -0.023529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021008, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.04392, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.161572, "worst_return": -0.036179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056768, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.03705, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059612, "worst_return": 0.005147, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039531, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009749, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006073, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058239, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1421.61499, "volume": 693, "typical_volume": 1192.1, "trend": 1485.37299, "fair_value": 1150.33007, "relative_strength": -0.47871, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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1398.964368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1344.0, "volume": 968, "typical_volume": 2075.25, "trend": 1366.342944, "fair_value": 1426.690772, "relative_strength": -6.128754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.332951, "energy": 22.200402, "activity_lines": [ 1397.333333, 1426.011772, 1426.291712, 1397.509985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1326.0, "volume": 1897, "typical_volume": 1910.85, "trend": 1365.542944, "fair_value": 1425.746476, "relative_strength": -9.181647, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.805853, "energy": 36.374889, "activity_lines": [ 1367.066667, 1405.553167, 1418.833196, 1394.907214 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }