{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7261a81c-b823-43bd-a9f3-33da9035ba96", "symbol": "IDX", "name": "Integral Diagnostics Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.677, "architecture_energy": 18.157, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.047, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.6, "rotation_up": 33.29, "upward_expansion": 21.19, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 17.85, "downward_expansion": 52.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.114, 2.079091, 2.098619, 2.153595 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.18, "trend_reference": 2.243704, "distance_from_trend": -0.028392, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.403522, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.34755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09053, "excess_performance": -0.154235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028392, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092998, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008915, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047017, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4300229, "relative_activity": 1.262025, "balance": 0.745577, "dry_up": 1.089259, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048342, "annualized_volatility": 0.218777, "from_high_reference": -0.270197, "from_low_reference": 0.120823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.243704, "fair_value_reference": 2.403522, "structural_low": 1.945, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.019666, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.018733, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.126638, "worst_return": -0.350943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.065323, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.092902, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.308552, "worst_return": -0.336237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.177811, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.187928, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.25865, "worst_return": -0.20767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.344149, "energy": 33.72956, "activity_lines": [ 2.058, 2.049273, 2.102524, 2.169185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.1, "volume": 4967374, "typical_volume": 3553758.5, "trend": 2.254554, "fair_value": 2.408184, "relative_strength": -14.282996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.60707, "energy": 24.711564, "activity_lines": [ 2.076, 2.057091, 2.096238, 2.158405 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.18, "volume": 4300229, "typical_volume": 3407402.75, "trend": 2.243704, "fair_value": 2.403522, "relative_strength": -13.34755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.676744, "energy": 18.15652, "activity_lines": [ 2.114, 2.079091, 2.098619, 2.153595 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }