{ "ticker": { "uuid": "726229d6-82fd-42d7-9403-cb296aebef30", "symbol": "SVA", "name": "Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.273, "architecture_energy": 80.434, "architecture_maturity": 22.564, "architecture_confidence": 90.503, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.98, "rotation_up": 10.66, "upward_expansion": 19.57, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 75.74, "downward_expansion": 95.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.123636, 0.137524, 0.144473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.151333, "distance_from_trend": -0.207048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.314423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.618349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.223662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.370421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.618349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067004, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.322237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215876, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.230893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 781800, "relative_activity": 1.544983, "balance": 0.230893, "dry_up": 1.331901, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 0.633345, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.151333, "fair_value_reference": 0.314423, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.061728, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.055032, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.394737, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.059524, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.110526, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.21374, "worst_return": -0.446429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.115217, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.218269, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.242188, "worst_return": -0.640625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 1570900, "typical_volume": 536920.0, "trend": 0.153667, "fair_value": 0.329231, "relative_strength": -33.328225, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.784999, "energy": 75.582638, "activity_lines": [ 0.129333, 0.137091, 0.148952, 0.152151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.11, "volume": 143400, "typical_volume": 498730.0, "trend": 0.153, "fair_value": 0.324038, "relative_strength": -38.008411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.900728, "energy": 84.033535, "activity_lines": [ 0.121333, 0.131091, 0.144571, 0.149333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.11, "volume": 199800, "typical_volume": 487320.0, "trend": 0.152333, "fair_value": 0.319103, "relative_strength": -36.809909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.079634, "energy": 84.017078, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.126, 0.140429, 0.146559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 781800, "typical_volume": 506025.0, "trend": 0.151333, "fair_value": 0.314423, "relative_strength": -32.223662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.272525, "energy": 80.434038, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.123636, 0.137524, 0.144473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }