{ "ticker": { "uuid": "726731ac-ec7c-41f6-8153-761147a035a0", "symbol": "GVF", "name": "Staude Capital Global Value Fund Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.443, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.422, "architecture_energy": 42.17, "architecture_maturity": 4.37, "architecture_confidence": 79.158, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.72, "rotation_up": 57.78, "upward_expansion": 81.72, "deceleration": 52.06, "rotation_down": 18.45, "downward_expansion": 6.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.375, 1.37, 1.352511, 1.34389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.38, "trend_reference": 1.340288, "distance_from_trend": 0.02963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.207183, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.745011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025249, "excess_performance": -0.038457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143157, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019199, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025249, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.897323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 303540, "relative_activity": 0.840012, "balance": 0.897323, "dry_up": 0.965537, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025084, "annualized_volatility": 0.120136, "from_high_reference": -0.044025, "from_low_reference": 0.092543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.340288, "fair_value_reference": 1.207183, "structural_low": 1.263108, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.004237, "positive_rate": 0.604651, "directional_follow_through": 0.604651, "median_excess_return": 0.002849, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.050929, "worst_return": -0.062937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022388, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.022938, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.087548, "worst_return": -0.078534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047237, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.032203, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.144093, "worst_return": -0.056078, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 1.342587, "fair_value": 1.19931, "relative_strength": 0.970807, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.358164, "energy": 47.875273, "activity_lines": [ 1.367667, 1.355455, 1.340074, 1.337093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.375, "volume": 289984, "typical_volume": 381628.1, "trend": 1.341115, "fair_value": 1.201978, "relative_strength": 2.302893, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.154166, "energy": 50.905881, "activity_lines": [ 1.371, 1.361, 1.344369, 1.339184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.375, "volume": 328152, "typical_volume": 376651.85, "trend": 1.340943, "fair_value": 1.204592, "relative_strength": -0.025069, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.237863, "energy": 49.223296, "activity_lines": [ 1.373333, 1.365636, 1.34841, 1.34137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.38, "volume": 303540, "typical_volume": 361351.95, "trend": 1.340288, "fair_value": 1.207183, "relative_strength": -2.745011, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.421962, "energy": 42.170344, "activity_lines": [ 1.375, 1.37, 1.352511, 1.34389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }