{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72688953-4bdd-4245-a0ac-ed1ffee9ec92", "symbol": "XDG3", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDG 3 Good Health UCITS ETF 1C USD", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.777, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.579, "architecture_energy": 66.096, "architecture_maturity": 14.134, "architecture_confidence": 57.639, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.51, "rotation_up": 74.24, "upward_expansion": 62.97, "deceleration": 23.65, "rotation_down": 17.71, "downward_expansion": 21.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.752334, 37.336728, 36.422762, 36.272172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.32, "trend_reference": 36.437167, "distance_from_trend": 0.051673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.345761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115713, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.781981, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002158, "excess_performance": -0.049078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005674, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115713, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11084, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073536, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002158, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.324695, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.324695, "dry_up": 0.536837, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024074, "annualized_volatility": 0.169487, "from_high_reference": -0.015796, "from_low_reference": 0.164034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.437167, "fair_value_reference": 34.345761, "structural_low": 32.919998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.030675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013912, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.030315, "worst_return": -0.091666, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.061897, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.0801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.061897, "worst_return": -0.061897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.027965, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.088829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.027965, "worst_return": -0.027965, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.787989, "energy": 38.939015, "activity_lines": [ 36.459, 35.749363, 35.498369, 35.897634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.192501, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 221.65, "trend": 36.452833, "fair_value": 34.172043, "relative_strength": -2.501174, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.114139, "energy": 50.197969, "activity_lines": [ 36.8485, 36.105363, 35.640488, 35.945274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.615002, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 171.7, "trend": 36.46025, "fair_value": 34.212315, "relative_strength": -2.248131, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.679275, "energy": 63.448705, "activity_lines": [ 37.264834, 36.4875, 35.828274, 36.020253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.5075, "volume": 220, "typical_volume": 115.15, "trend": 36.451167, "fair_value": 34.253726, "relative_strength": -3.590714, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.504757, "energy": 66.72226, "activity_lines": [ 37.486167, 36.785182, 36.009381, 36.087817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.435001, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 111.3, "trend": 36.446333, "fair_value": 34.298181, "relative_strength": -4.819073, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.243985, "energy": 63.457055, "activity_lines": [ 37.487834, 37.003637, 36.178107, 36.15129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 111.3, "trend": 36.437167, "fair_value": 34.345761, "relative_strength": -2.781981, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.579237, "energy": 66.096422, "activity_lines": [ 37.752334, 37.336728, 36.422762, 36.272172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }