{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7268d1bc-d0d9-4b9a-a651-227ff50127be", "symbol": "XES", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.017, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.273, "architecture_energy": 12.636, "architecture_maturity": 28.758, "architecture_confidence": 67.585, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.93, "rotation_up": 24.05, "upward_expansion": 23.51, "deceleration": 69.71, "rotation_down": 37.55, "downward_expansion": 28.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.469333, 112.48625, 116.055906, 116.014998 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 113.33, "trend_reference": 113.779153, "distance_from_trend": -0.003948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.365325, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327588, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.830614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086087, "excess_performance": -0.039538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327588, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038306, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279282, "relative_activity": 0.495674, "balance": 0.525527, "dry_up": 0.540844, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068649, "annualized_volatility": 0.292001, "from_high_reference": -0.160464, "from_low_reference": 0.785641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.779153, "fair_value_reference": 85.365325, "structural_low": 103.928225, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.011589, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.030341, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127045, "worst_return": -0.243843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.063115, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.110312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166526, "worst_return": -0.149909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022035, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.206124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313654, "worst_return": -0.084188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 553444, "typical_volume": 646795.0, "trend": 109.919126, "fair_value": 84.768287, "relative_strength": 7.85168, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.617966, "energy": 23.541017, "activity_lines": [ 111.726583, 115.618391, 118.08722, 115.765465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.32, "volume": 441380, "typical_volume": 635917.45, "trend": 110.999039, "fair_value": 84.93534, "relative_strength": 9.071736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.861483, "energy": 22.554015, "activity_lines": [ 111.274358, 114.437015, 117.578183, 115.92036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.01, "volume": 169941, "typical_volume": 595786.45, "trend": 112.081908, "fair_value": 85.089237, "relative_strength": 9.696206, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.264579, "energy": 32.681628, "activity_lines": [ 111.79, 113.572175, 117.136829, 116.0501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.17, "volume": 328327, "typical_volume": 581945.1, "trend": 112.962174, "fair_value": 85.22264, "relative_strength": 6.064677, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.24973, "energy": 18.359751, "activity_lines": [ 111.706, 112.668646, 116.496602, 115.991267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 113.33, "volume": 279282, "typical_volume": 563438.4, "trend": 113.779153, "fair_value": 85.365325, "relative_strength": 3.830614, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.273493, "energy": 12.63644, "activity_lines": [ 112.469333, 112.48625, 116.055906, 116.014998 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }