{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7269fc6a-be42-427c-9b4e-86c145c14048", "symbol": "ULOVE", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Low Volatility UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.862, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.32, "architecture_energy": 48.434, "architecture_maturity": 11.621, "architecture_confidence": 71.322, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.87, "rotation_up": 73.44, "upward_expansion": 54.4, "deceleration": 17.72, "rotation_down": 15.06, "downward_expansion": 22.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.129333, 30.911364, 30.5275, 30.545484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 31.184999, "trend_reference": 30.565833, "distance_from_trend": 0.020257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.417885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097372, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.849232, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027851, "excess_performance": -0.143041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010018, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097372, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003671, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.290883, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10392, "relative_activity": 7.595658, "balance": 8.290883, "dry_up": 3.850638, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017069, "annualized_volatility": 0.11504, "from_high_reference": -0.029563, "from_low_reference": 0.065425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.565833, "fair_value_reference": 28.417885, "structural_low": 29.27, "invalidation": "A 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"relative_strength": -13.619282, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.61916, "energy": 68.418035, "activity_lines": [ 29.940667, 30.145, 30.497048, 30.422376 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 29.795, "volume": 398, "typical_volume": 563.95, "trend": 30.252333, "fair_value": 28.019391, "relative_strength": -12.943513, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.341579, "energy": 60.172609, "activity_lines": [ 29.850334, 30.025, 30.428571, 30.392677 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 29.615, "volume": 379, "typical_volume": 538.2, "trend": 30.262667, "fair_value": 28.051603, "relative_strength": -14.009436, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.032672, "energy": 65.257478, "activity_lines": [ 29.734, 29.904546, 30.341548, 30.351559 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 29.475, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 297.55, "trend": 30.268333, "fair_value": 28.082917, "relative_strength": -13.817021, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.13465, "energy": 74.860483, "activity_lines": [ 29.617, 29.794182, 30.242095, 30.300742 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 30.264999, "volume": 298, "typical_volume": 279.0, "trend": 30.2885, "fair_value": 28.119295, "relative_strength": -13.850308, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.532885, "energy": 36.616166, "activity_lines": [ 29.807333, 29.865545, 30.221428, 30.300527 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 30.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 271.6, "trend": 30.308, "fair_value": 28.155577, "relative_strength": -15.654311, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.266063, "energy": 29.438903, "activity_lines": [ 29.984, 29.924909, 30.199048, 30.298043 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 30.57, "volume": 1740, "typical_volume": 332.7, "trend": 30.327833, "fair_value": 28.19359, "relative_strength": -11.748185, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.065252, "energy": 19.71692, "activity_lines": [ 30.214, 30.033454, 30.207095, 30.314946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.57, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 317.8, "trend": 30.347667, "fair_value": 28.230481, "relative_strength": -13.923729, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.180065, "energy": 33.341865, "activity_lines": [ 30.392333, 30.137182, 30.214048, 30.33057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.790001, "volume": 1889, "typical_volume": 316.75, "trend": 30.374833, "fair_value": 28.268782, "relative_strength": -12.566143, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.74244, "energy": 39.459515, "activity_lines": [ 30.580334, 30.276091, 30.243976, 30.359108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.375, "volume": 895, "typical_volume": 359.25, "trend": 30.4215, "fair_value": 28.30718, "relative_strength": -9.292843, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.000467, "energy": 74.64193, "activity_lines": [ 30.875667, 30.509455, 30.331976, 30.423634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.965, "volume": 2026, "typical_volume": 460.55, "trend": 30.465, "fair_value": 28.340898, "relative_strength": -9.987643, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.860143, "energy": 62.374417, "activity_lines": [ 30.960334, 30.645727, 30.381857, 30.458699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.145, "volume": 7760, "typical_volume": 848.55, "trend": 30.519833, "fair_value": 28.379327, "relative_strength": -9.731843, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.875666, "energy": 57.30545, "activity_lines": [ 31.057333, 30.787182, 30.451762, 30.50257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.184999, "volume": 10392, "typical_volume": 1368.15, "trend": 30.565833, "fair_value": 28.417885, "relative_strength": -11.849232, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.319855, "energy": 48.434367, "activity_lines": [ 31.129333, 30.911364, 30.5275, 30.545484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }