{ "ticker": { "uuid": "726da7ee-eb07-4b1d-b05e-1fe2ee86e467", "symbol": "ZG", "name": "Zillow Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.985, "architecture_energy": 33.102, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.775, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.39, "rotation_up": 26.99, "upward_expansion": 16.3, "deceleration": 46.8, "rotation_down": 35.33, "downward_expansion": 63.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.331333, 32.986182, 34.884857, 37.266452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.95, "trend_reference": 41.9335, "distance_from_trend": -0.190385, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.948173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.403844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.580026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.377064, "excess_performance": -0.564518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190385, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224997, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.403844, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.4758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.377064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8476370, "relative_activity": 1.462716, "balance": 0.586801, "dry_up": 1.186728, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11857, "annualized_volatility": 0.55238, "from_high_reference": -0.623698, "from_low_reference": 0.16948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.9335, "fair_value_reference": 56.948173, "structural_low": 29.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.051364, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.037831, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.361825, "worst_return": -0.479096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.177657, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.107324, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.52012, "worst_return": -0.391199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060347, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.135842, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.030635, "worst_return": -0.526546, "sufficient": true }, 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44.071167, "fair_value": 57.211955, "relative_strength": -51.783779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.644954, "energy": 56.681365, "activity_lines": [ 32.150667, 32.587455, 35.532571, 38.458172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.69, "volume": 8984468, "typical_volume": 5748725.9, "trend": 43.0405, "fair_value": 57.083237, "relative_strength": -44.758415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.97103, "energy": 41.642483, "activity_lines": [ 32.981333, 32.834182, 35.22619, 37.852935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.95, "volume": 8476370, "typical_volume": 5794950.9, "trend": 41.9335, "fair_value": 56.948173, "relative_strength": -47.580026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.984563, "energy": 33.102181, "activity_lines": [ 33.331333, 32.986182, 34.884857, 37.266452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }