{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72760631-328d-4afc-8d58-b4cadedc696f", "symbol": "600498", "name": "Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.506, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.454, "architecture_energy": 54.875, "architecture_maturity": 19.049, "architecture_confidence": 72.438, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.64, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 24.54, "deceleration": 53.39, "rotation_down": 68.71, "downward_expansion": 49.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.237333, 47.646652, 51.834372, 51.517915 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.209999, "trend_reference": 49.829407, "distance_from_trend": -0.213115, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.362639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.545975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.014246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009848, "excess_performance": 0.033355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213115, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.23334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.545975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.990022, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000142, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.680919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009848, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72112, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 434566314, "relative_activity": 1.052464, "balance": 0.72112, "dry_up": 0.997097, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.259384, "annualized_volatility": 0.926385, "from_high_reference": -0.532306, "from_low_reference": 0.81696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.829407, "fair_value_reference": 25.362639, "structural_low": 31.360001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013418, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023402, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.288276, "worst_return": -0.053665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.150595, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.10203, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.307961, "worst_return": -0.091722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.17693, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.124114, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.743682, "worst_return": 0.103284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038331, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106153, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163162, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.150013, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 17.501106, "volume": 44029951, "typical_volume": 129554040.8, "trend": 17.589716, "fair_value": 17.825012, "relative_strength": 7.72936, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.816787, 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7.469951, "energy": 9.267947, "activity_lines": [ 55.883674, 59.03441, 56.843737, 54.071456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.360001, "volume": 463754351, "typical_volume": 425945987.35, "trend": 49.470408, "fair_value": 25.133761, "relative_strength": -3.007553, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.118921, "energy": 37.416636, "activity_lines": [ 47.367265, 54.912915, 55.104632, 53.244505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.09, "volume": 329980483, "typical_volume": 410573964.8, "trend": 49.591741, "fair_value": 25.225496, "relative_strength": -12.590568, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.277468, "energy": 47.19496, "activity_lines": [ 40.348964, 50.522874, 53.132192, 52.187705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.209999, "volume": 434566314, "typical_volume": 412903760.35, "trend": 49.829407, "fair_value": 25.362639, "relative_strength": 0.014246, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.454347, "energy": 54.875398, "activity_lines": [ 38.237333, 47.646652, 51.834372, 51.517915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }