{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72760a41-a0eb-4ca5-a0dd-ff2024ef0ff5", "symbol": "300693", "name": "Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.265, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.445, "architecture_energy": 72.431, "architecture_maturity": 19.163, "architecture_confidence": 81.591, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.69, "rotation_up": 9.03, "upward_expansion": 16.14, "deceleration": 37.46, "rotation_down": 75.71, "downward_expansion": 91.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.836001, 38.655819, 43.430867, 44.356564 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.209999, "trend_reference": 44.406156, "distance_from_trend": -0.139534, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.378182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.06738, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015105, "excess_performance": 0.007705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004922, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180116, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.475031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243471, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015105, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.849033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61023996, "relative_activity": 0.887937, "balance": 0.849033, "dry_up": 0.88028, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172827, "annualized_volatility": 0.587668, "from_high_reference": -0.458801, "from_low_reference": 0.205743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.406156, "fair_value_reference": 32.378182, "structural_low": 31.690001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056637, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.097532, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142285, "worst_return": -0.029011, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.230386, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.112673, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.003853, "worst_return": -0.456919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.094789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099578, "worst_return": -0.289156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126023, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.116372, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073731, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004871, "active": false }, { 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43.782627, 46.642684, 46.108584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.330002, "volume": 63262760, "typical_volume": 74159510.1, "trend": 44.59023, "fair_value": 32.404988, "relative_strength": -18.253526, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.092287, "energy": 64.516276, "activity_lines": [ 37.453334, 41.40291, 45.401961, 45.439662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.990002, "volume": 50020787, "typical_volume": 70096903.65, "trend": 44.397781, "fair_value": 32.362675, "relative_strength": -17.751824, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.15625, "energy": 68.090433, "activity_lines": [ 35.618668, 39.423274, 44.183583, 44.755776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.209999, "volume": 61023996, "typical_volume": 68725622.75, "trend": 44.406156, "fair_value": 32.378182, "relative_strength": -12.06738, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.444799, "energy": 72.431377, "activity_lines": [ 35.836001, 38.655819, 43.430867, 44.356564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }