{ "ticker": { "uuid": "727a1c66-1ec8-4a78-8bc8-7c71371b0c38", "symbol": "ARI", "name": "Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.733, "architecture_energy": 92.543, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.989, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 86.88, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.974756, 8.100415, 9.249179, 9.644333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.76, "trend_reference": 10.004237, "distance_from_trend": -0.324286, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.855105, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.913489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.359256, "excess_performance": -0.484881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.324286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020049, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.495856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392715, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.359256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13516771, "relative_activity": 0.93959, "balance": 0.367862, "dry_up": 2.031967, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088183, "annualized_volatility": 0.527952, "from_high_reference": -0.398577, "from_low_reference": 0.051322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.004237, "fair_value_reference": 8.855105, "structural_low": 6.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.031705, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.001649, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.406024, "worst_return": -0.18258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024144, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.033669, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.338204, "worst_return": -0.060003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050482, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.052823, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.150574, "worst_return": -0.035739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -33.490849, "energy": 54.189458, "activity_lines": [ 10.200082, 10.43544, 10.596789, 10.538016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.98, "volume": 60402972, "typical_volume": 12681888.3, "trend": 10.29444, "fair_value": 8.882993, "relative_strength": -35.875764, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -71.427487, "energy": 86.759804, "activity_lines": [ 9.103976, 9.776138, 10.254301, 10.318652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.77, "volume": 24671804, "typical_volume": 13635920.15, "trend": 10.20395, "fair_value": 8.870413, "relative_strength": -36.992893, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.501273, "energy": 99.229571, "activity_lines": [ 8.163915, 9.151746, 9.907883, 10.091268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.62, "volume": 18334520, "typical_volume": 14131718.55, "trend": 10.103551, "fair_value": 8.862381, "relative_strength": -38.576142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.162381, "energy": 97.91037, "activity_lines": [ 7.419692, 8.57408, 9.56374, 9.860046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.76, "volume": 13516771, "typical_volume": 14385823.75, "trend": 10.004237, "fair_value": 8.855105, "relative_strength": -38.913489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.733085, "energy": 92.542556, "activity_lines": [ 6.974756, 8.100415, 9.249179, 9.644333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }