{ "ticker": { "uuid": "727a29cc-e13c-4737-9c39-b66f89a8cf4b", "symbol": "AOSL", "name": "Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.333, "architecture_energy": 18.628, "architecture_maturity": 45.902, "architecture_confidence": 74.687, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.24, "rotation_up": 15.5, "upward_expansion": 41.63, "deceleration": 79.99, "rotation_down": 43.09, "downward_expansion": 35.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.334, 35.919455, 38.005095, 35.598172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.08, "trend_reference": 31.869333, "distance_from_trend": 0.132123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.201186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.207084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.689139, "excess_performance": 0.501685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234082, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235566, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.112071, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13997, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.689139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.632302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2134420, "relative_activity": 0.529078, "balance": 1.632302, "dry_up": 0.740265, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225313, "annualized_volatility": 0.783391, "from_high_reference": -0.336032, "from_low_reference": 1.121105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.869333, "fair_value_reference": 29.201186, "structural_low": 19.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058972, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.009185, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.133845, "worst_return": -0.257664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.166703, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047379, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007827, "worst_return": -0.314412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.110879, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.210167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078486, "worst_return": -0.279092, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.113022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.311983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153822, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 30.99, "volume": 759913, "typical_volume": 996739.8, "trend": 28.736333, "fair_value": 33.10359, "relative_strength": -13.031036, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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42.537333, 42.708727, 38.783, 34.673183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.56, "volume": 2990695, "typical_volume": 3730256.6, "trend": 30.312, "fair_value": 29.191699, "relative_strength": 15.195314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.378078, "energy": 22.910617, "activity_lines": [ 40.633333, 41.841818, 39.131905, 35.177806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.27, "volume": 4270663, "typical_volume": 3891101.85, "trend": 30.676333, "fair_value": 29.191635, "relative_strength": 0.33557, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.839044, "energy": 17.357593, "activity_lines": [ 36.929333, 39.931636, 38.809476, 35.239613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.85, "volume": 2540254, "typical_volume": 3945900.9, "trend": 31.033333, "fair_value": 29.187788, "relative_strength": 0.735292, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.401529, "energy": 17.151492, "activity_lines": [ 34.014667, 38.065636, 38.39819, 35.250817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.74, "volume": 3000245, "typical_volume": 4001349.15, "trend": 31.402667, "fair_value": 29.178045, "relative_strength": 3.023748, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.075288, "energy": 19.106668, "activity_lines": [ 32.542667, 36.507273, 38.019333, 35.296409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.08, "volume": 2134420, "typical_volume": 4034224.2, "trend": 31.869333, "fair_value": 29.201186, "relative_strength": 11.207084, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.333411, "energy": 18.628039, "activity_lines": [ 33.334, 35.919455, 38.005095, 35.598172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }