{ "ticker": { "uuid": "727ab339-8fa4-4cba-acf6-c38c0f998cf7", "symbol": "NRGV", "name": "Energy Vault Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.093, "architecture_energy": 52.68, "architecture_maturity": 14.142, "architecture_confidence": 76.791, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.8, "rotation_up": 8.42, "upward_expansion": 16.87, "deceleration": 45.56, "rotation_down": 68.75, "downward_expansion": 80.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.139333, 3.44, 3.934762, 3.926043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.49, "trend_reference": 3.996667, "distance_from_trend": -0.126772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.27972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.53089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.596426, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171021, "excess_performance": -0.296646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034077, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.53089, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.569472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.563408, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730132, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35029502, "relative_activity": 1.460002, "balance": 0.730132, "dry_up": 1.008988, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.304051, "annualized_volatility": 0.896256, "from_high_reference": -0.474793, "from_low_reference": 1.604478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.996667, "fair_value_reference": 2.27972, "structural_low": 2.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003684, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022071, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.772557, "worst_return": -0.29878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.260723, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.140955, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.987108, "worst_return": -0.37931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.780702, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.68522, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.77211, "worst_return": -0.344828, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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4.204753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.08, "volume": 21874030, "typical_volume": 23522048.25, "trend": 4.191, "fair_value": 2.279784, "relative_strength": -21.723519, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.820311, "energy": 34.139693, "activity_lines": [ 3.586667, 4.052182, 4.215476, 4.129419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.88, "volume": 21144762, "typical_volume": 23751235.8, "trend": 4.124667, "fair_value": 2.279143, "relative_strength": -26.853563, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.243747, "energy": 55.368218, "activity_lines": [ 3.288667, 3.762182, 4.102333, 4.044839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.85, "volume": 18785448, "typical_volume": 23995867.95, "trend": 4.056667, "fair_value": 2.277604, "relative_strength": -28.940876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.268771, "energy": 60.952845, "activity_lines": [ 3.062, 3.522182, 3.987, 3.962602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.49, "volume": 35029502, "typical_volume": 23992781.8, "trend": 3.996667, "fair_value": 2.27972, "relative_strength": -16.596426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.09259, "energy": 52.680165, "activity_lines": [ 3.139333, 3.44, 3.934762, 3.926043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }