{ "ticker": { "uuid": "727b4354-2303-46f5-915f-1c9d66552e9f", "symbol": "POL", "name": "Polymetals Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.305, "architecture_energy": 28.187, "architecture_maturity": 49.474, "architecture_confidence": 89.991, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.22, "rotation_up": 21.5, "upward_expansion": 4.26, "deceleration": 49.46, "rotation_down": 44.62, "downward_expansion": 70.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.803, 0.803273, 0.821881, 0.840022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.84, "trend_reference": 0.908333, "distance_from_trend": -0.075229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.660897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.606558, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184466, "excess_performance": -0.248172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105531, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.374588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184466, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.786711, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2080013, "relative_activity": 0.485056, "balance": 0.786711, "dry_up": 0.608549, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124542, "annualized_volatility": 0.751138, "from_high_reference": -0.489362, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.908333, "fair_value_reference": 0.660897, "structural_low": 0.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.036364, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.050603, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.518519, "worst_return": -0.104651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.466721, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.446431, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.020833, "worst_return": 0.056604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.576159, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.559407, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.1875, "worst_return": -0.056604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.174934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.11859, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.396226, "worst_return": -0.046358, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.283582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.865854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.295455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165563, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174312, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145631, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.208633, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.29, "volume": 76851, "typical_volume": 595072.9, "trend": 0.265833, "fair_value": 0.180732, "relative_strength": 22.520172, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"close": 0.915, "volume": 3589039, "typical_volume": 5208656.75, "trend": 0.97, "fair_value": 0.648878, "relative_strength": -6.707385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.731965, "energy": 17.156262, "activity_lines": [ 0.840333, 0.827909, 0.839905, 0.88257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.72, "volume": 3973609, "typical_volume": 5008865.9, "trend": 0.954667, "fair_value": 0.651442, "relative_strength": -26.456369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.705709, "energy": 28.394897, "activity_lines": [ 0.809333, 0.804364, 0.828048, 0.866441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.77, "volume": 3081105, "typical_volume": 4920207.3, "trend": 0.938, "fair_value": 0.654327, "relative_strength": -21.10012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.059988, "energy": 22.362488, "activity_lines": [ 0.797667, 0.795364, 0.822381, 0.854527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.795, "volume": 1303578, "typical_volume": 4617731.3, "trend": 0.921833, "fair_value": 0.6575, "relative_strength": -20.468994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.192701, "energy": 25.993264, "activity_lines": [ 0.794333, 0.794636, 0.819905, 0.845301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.84, "volume": 2080013, "typical_volume": 4288190.7, "trend": 0.908333, "fair_value": 0.660897, "relative_strength": -18.606558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.304788, "energy": 28.187057, "activity_lines": [ 0.803, 0.803273, 0.821881, 0.840022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }