{ "ticker": { "uuid": "727fbc0c-25bc-471a-a777-9fbe924ad0b2", "symbol": "N1WL34", "name": "Newell Brands Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 77.296, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.865, "architecture_energy": 63.088, "architecture_maturity": 62.15, "architecture_confidence": 62.501, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.37, "rotation_up": 55.37, "upward_expansion": 78.95, "deceleration": 73.71, "rotation_down": 23.56, "downward_expansion": 10.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.091333, 27.773273, 25.384723, 24.180624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.799999, "trend_reference": 23.131968, "distance_from_trend": 0.28826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.960261, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095881, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.773393, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.291828, "excess_performance": 0.348876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.28826, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12326, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095881, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262036, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.247734, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.476563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.291828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140, "relative_activity": 1.751094, "balance": 0.461712, "dry_up": 0.525328, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069595, "annualized_volatility": 0.745516, "from_high_reference": -0.008649, "from_low_reference": 0.854071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.131968, "fair_value_reference": 32.960261, "structural_low": 17.272346, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016287, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010722, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.248654, "worst_return": -0.120164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.065982, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.156903, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.42859, "worst_return": -0.269559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.035046, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088114, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.334329, "worst_return": -0.40442, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 26.450001, "volume": 826, "typical_volume": 82.75, "trend": 22.112328, "fair_value": 33.395358, "relative_strength": 4.894409, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.519229, "energy": 87.422947, "activity_lines": [ 27.772, 25.395969, 23.298081, 22.74703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.610001, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 84.05, "trend": 22.337949, "fair_value": 33.322444, "relative_strength": 13.092164, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.763153, "energy": 87.594506, "activity_lines": [ 27.876, 26.069164, 23.808677, 23.101718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.9, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 83.05, "trend": 22.586259, "fair_value": 33.203844, "relative_strength": 15.045452, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.776275, "energy": 80.494752, "activity_lines": [ 27.909334, 26.692388, 24.33094, 23.46056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.75, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 83.1, "trend": 22.802746, "fair_value": 33.069407, "relative_strength": 8.401314, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.12126, "energy": 54.392267, "activity_lines": [ 27.409334, 26.998909, 24.72113, 23.729189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.799999, "volume": 140, "typical_volume": 79.95, "trend": 23.131968, "fair_value": 32.960261, "relative_strength": 24.773393, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.865001, "energy": 63.088298, "activity_lines": [ 28.091333, 27.773273, 25.384723, 24.180624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }