{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7284dc9b-12b8-42a3-a4b8-0db0a293b30d", "symbol": "ELAN-B", "name": "Elanders AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.436, "architecture_energy": 57.723, "architecture_maturity": 13.816, "architecture_confidence": 55.969, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.1, "rotation_up": 68.63, "upward_expansion": 58.56, "deceleration": 24.75, "rotation_down": 19.25, "downward_expansion": 21.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.343334, 49.738182, 48.935701, 48.576294 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.200001, "trend_reference": 49.594556, "distance_from_trend": 0.072698, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 70.727787, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24782, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.242277, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028859, "excess_performance": -0.032636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072698, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071183, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091922, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075718, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.322562, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72046, "relative_activity": 1.38037, "balance": 1.322562, "dry_up": 1.160667, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057548, "annualized_volatility": 0.324078, "from_high_reference": -0.220386, "from_low_reference": 0.302414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.594556, "fair_value_reference": 70.727787, "structural_low": 40.847224, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.00838, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.018068, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.212418, "worst_return": -0.140995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.108262, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.008634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283456, "worst_return": -0.271308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.066128, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069377, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.128358, "worst_return": -0.426328, 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"activity_lines": [ 48.420001, 47.949091, 47.795504, 48.377514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.0, "volume": 56019, "typical_volume": 51814.15, "trend": 50.398167, "fair_value": 71.236756, "relative_strength": -14.668511, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.33085, "energy": 11.396962, "activity_lines": [ 49.166667, 48.329091, 48.057584, 48.329344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.0, "volume": 18311, "typical_volume": 50932.75, "trend": 49.974112, "fair_value": 70.982978, "relative_strength": -13.662532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.135292, "energy": 29.697669, "activity_lines": [ 50.013334, 48.834546, 48.403582, 48.368172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.200001, "volume": 72046, "typical_volume": 52193.25, "trend": 49.594556, "fair_value": 70.727787, "relative_strength": -11.242277, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.436092, "energy": 57.723302, "activity_lines": [ 51.343334, 49.738182, 48.935701, 48.576294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }