{ "ticker": { "uuid": "728662c4-800a-4533-93eb-48dd672a9176", "symbol": "002312", "name": "Sichuan Development Lomon Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.178, "architecture_energy": 58.64, "architecture_maturity": 44.76, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 22.81, "upward_expansion": 10.52, "deceleration": 47.9, "rotation_down": 55.4, "downward_expansion": 81.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.286, 8.502412, 9.043121, 9.721749 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.45, "trend_reference": 10.542526, "distance_from_trend": -0.198484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.951753, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.259634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31468, "excess_performance": -0.322079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009686, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.373596, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90581489, "relative_activity": 0.700437, "balance": 0.373596, "dry_up": 0.774729, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094512, "annualized_volatility": 0.53545, "from_high_reference": -0.402827, "from_low_reference": 0.075064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.542526, "fair_value_reference": 9.951753, "structural_low": 7.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.001329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009775, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.599462, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020622, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007787, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.385507, "worst_return": -0.211575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006067, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120886, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.278075, "worst_return": -0.219828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"trend": 10.717193, "fair_value": 9.947749, "relative_strength": -27.697038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.488638, "energy": 65.923163, "activity_lines": [ 8.327333, 8.598652, 9.325985, 10.006419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.48, "volume": 99246766, "typical_volume": 145472068.9, "trend": 10.625193, "fair_value": 9.950912, "relative_strength": -21.768313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.571441, "energy": 70.513801, "activity_lines": [ 8.257333, 8.542792, 9.174434, 9.862084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.45, "volume": 90581489, "typical_volume": 129321460.0, "trend": 10.542526, "fair_value": 9.951753, "relative_strength": -25.259634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.177559, "energy": 58.640378, "activity_lines": [ 8.286, 8.502412, 9.043121, 9.721749 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }