{ "ticker": { "uuid": "728a4cb1-6d95-43c3-b040-31d047e392b5", "symbol": "RZI", "name": "Raiz Invest Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.476, "architecture_energy": 12.694, "architecture_maturity": 87.824, "architecture_confidence": 91.236, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.17, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 15.27, "deceleration": 43.92, "rotation_down": 31.84, "downward_expansion": 65.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.552833, 0.545091, 0.555524, 0.565285 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.588, "distance_from_trend": 0.020408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.538894, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113391, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.210461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008264, "excess_performance": -0.07197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13285, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113391, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047309, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142105, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008264, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.59121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350250, "relative_activity": 0.625377, "balance": 0.59121, "dry_up": 0.616201, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075321, "annualized_volatility": 0.379887, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.588, "fair_value_reference": 0.538894, "structural_low": 0.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.020301, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.031307, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.305556, "worst_return": -0.261111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.057263, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.096677, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.348485, "worst_return": -0.324138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005925, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.578947, "worst_return": -0.518966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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0.525, "volume": 119601, "typical_volume": 560402.4, "trend": 0.617917, "fair_value": 0.536987, "relative_strength": -22.573308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.150968, "energy": 65.559374, "activity_lines": [ 0.536333, 0.548273, 0.563619, 0.581027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.525, "volume": 90834, "typical_volume": 533850.05, "trend": 0.610583, "fair_value": 0.5375, "relative_strength": -22.153196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.745404, "energy": 61.528319, "activity_lines": [ 0.531, 0.541636, 0.558976, 0.575032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5125, "volume": 438506, "typical_volume": 542566.95, "trend": 0.602833, "fair_value": 0.53758, "relative_strength": -23.242913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.966669, "energy": 54.130561, "activity_lines": [ 0.523167, 0.534273, 0.55369, 0.568704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.545, "volume": 500853, "typical_volume": 553931.0, "trend": 0.595167, "fair_value": 0.538061, "relative_strength": -19.804201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.079656, "energy": 42.246394, "activity_lines": [ 0.529, 0.534318, 0.551869, 0.564973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 350250, "typical_volume": 560061.85, "trend": 0.588, "fair_value": 0.538894, "relative_strength": -14.210461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.47606, "energy": 12.694107, "activity_lines": [ 0.552833, 0.545091, 0.555524, 0.565285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }