{ "ticker": { "uuid": "728a80e2-c9ab-491a-8fe9-d9c13c95ece7", "symbol": "BHYB", "name": "Betashares Australian Major Bank Hybrids Index ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.356, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.441, "architecture_energy": 53.285, "architecture_maturity": 20.92, "architecture_confidence": 74.009, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.62, "rotation_up": 68.13, "upward_expansion": 85.89, "deceleration": 53.05, "rotation_down": 17.36, "downward_expansion": 7.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.828853, 9.815318, 9.775312, 9.753856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.83, "trend_reference": 9.731324, "distance_from_trend": 0.01014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.247133, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063032, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.428276, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009378, "excess_performance": -0.054327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005859, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063032, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005853, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009378, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.939586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 501764, "relative_activity": 1.436213, "balance": 2.939586, "dry_up": 1.562892, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005274, "annualized_volatility": 0.019644, "from_high_reference": -0.002671, "from_low_reference": 0.036675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.731324, "fair_value_reference": 9.247133, "structural_low": 9.635471, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.003867, "positive_rate": 0.763158, "directional_follow_through": 0.763158, "median_excess_return": -0.004937, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.010317, "worst_return": -0.006606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011334, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005528, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.032096, "worst_return": -0.006436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02393, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023493, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.038686, "worst_return": 0.009378, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 9.715856, "fair_value": 9.22311, "relative_strength": 1.589365, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.871678, "energy": 77.839375, "activity_lines": [ 9.809197, 9.78485, 9.746262, 9.732383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.817327, "volume": 390738, "typical_volume": 305341.55, "trend": 9.720144, "fair_value": 9.231185, "relative_strength": 1.817408, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.74885, "energy": 64.28263, "activity_lines": [ 9.813289, 9.794737, 9.755113, 9.73893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.847198, "volume": 931007, "typical_volume": 340038.0, "trend": 9.725694, "fair_value": 9.239158, "relative_strength": -0.201369, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.375289, "energy": 63.119186, "activity_lines": [ 9.824629, 9.807686, 9.766416, 9.747127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.83, "volume": 501764, "typical_volume": 349365.9, "trend": 9.731324, "fair_value": 9.247133, "relative_strength": -3.428276, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.440706, "energy": 53.284974, "activity_lines": [ 9.828853, 9.815318, 9.775312, 9.753856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }