{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7299a0bf-5500-42eb-931c-11a32fb7c3ed", "symbol": "2528", "name": "Crowell Development Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.802, "architecture_energy": 10.786, "architecture_maturity": 24.408, "architecture_confidence": 65.111, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.99, "rotation_up": 32.49, "upward_expansion": 27.27, "deceleration": 46.12, "rotation_down": 21.53, "downward_expansion": 46.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.976956, 19.710118, 19.597266, 20.012006 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.15, "trend_reference": 20.785005, "distance_from_trend": -0.030551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.766539, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.247194, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.35183, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.091175, "excess_performance": -0.532547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030551, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078604, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.247194, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086112, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.59534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1603035, "relative_activity": 0.446982, "balance": 0.59534, "dry_up": 0.698348, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070076, "annualized_volatility": 0.292495, "from_high_reference": -0.239124, "from_low_reference": 0.158625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.785005, "fair_value_reference": 26.766539, "structural_low": 17.391304, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00463, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.029219, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.054808, "worst_return": -0.129032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.089958, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150764, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.013761, "worst_return": -0.197773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050418, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.036678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043821, "worst_return": -0.212359, 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19.4, "volume": 3595910, "typical_volume": 3771842.1, "trend": 21.099114, "fair_value": 26.758964, "relative_strength": -37.572145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.26541, "energy": 22.618797, "activity_lines": [ 19.443477, 19.373122, 19.505336, 20.096586 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.6, "volume": 2129681, "typical_volume": 3683757.8, "trend": 20.961877, "fair_value": 26.764905, "relative_strength": -34.596233, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.667817, "energy": 7.389284, "activity_lines": [ 19.811014, 19.603003, 19.568695, 20.064385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.15, "volume": 1603035, "typical_volume": 3586354.0, "trend": 20.785005, "fair_value": 26.766539, "relative_strength": -37.35183, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.802254, "energy": 10.785516, "activity_lines": [ 19.976956, 19.710118, 19.597266, 20.012006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }