{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72a67a15-2ba8-4aaf-8d95-48aef4bfefd3", "symbol": "RAKE", "name": "Raketech Group Holding PLC", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.109, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.514, "architecture_energy": 25.08, "architecture_maturity": 30.018, "architecture_confidence": 45.221, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.83, "rotation_up": 46.19, "upward_expansion": 51.84, "deceleration": 28.73, "rotation_down": 26.48, "downward_expansion": 14.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.813667, 1.791545, 1.778871, 1.762428 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.765, "trend_reference": 1.7654, "distance_from_trend": -0.000227, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.12144, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.752157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.09715, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.05615, "excess_performance": -0.117644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000227, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026631, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.752157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036034, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067438, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.450975, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70638, "relative_activity": 0.96526, "balance": 1.450975, "dry_up": 1.427102, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08869, "annualized_volatility": 0.320525, "from_high_reference": -0.410684, "from_low_reference": 0.218923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.7654, "fair_value_reference": 7.12144, "structural_low": 1.448, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.013275, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.011962, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.230117, "worst_return": -0.195833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029536, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.056099, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.224653, "worst_return": -0.204255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.103599, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.131193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114078, "worst_return": -0.248511, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080685, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038988, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01758, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033862, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003492, "active": false 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"energy": 2.507116, "activity_lines": [ 1.765333, 1.759455, 1.750071, 1.752789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.8, "volume": 18605, "typical_volume": 61178.0, "trend": 1.776667, "fair_value": 7.454074, "relative_strength": -19.839574, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.347793, "energy": 10.750511, "activity_lines": [ 1.783667, 1.765455, 1.75751, 1.75408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.845, "volume": 146650, "typical_volume": 66091.9, "trend": 1.7735, "fair_value": 7.344187, "relative_strength": -18.149756, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.453093, "energy": 24.116715, "activity_lines": [ 1.811, 1.779636, 1.768281, 1.758488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.84, "volume": 181850, "typical_volume": 72117.05, "trend": 1.770433, "fair_value": 7.232351, "relative_strength": -18.37858, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.44618, "energy": 28.716483, "activity_lines": [ 1.829667, 1.792636, 1.7776, 1.762778 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.765, "volume": 70638, "typical_volume": 73180.3, "trend": 1.7654, "fair_value": 7.12144, "relative_strength": -22.09715, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.514473, "energy": 25.080169, "activity_lines": [ 1.813667, 1.791545, 1.778871, 1.762428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }