{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72aa8561-f736-449a-a8c6-cc297af08240", "symbol": "NRJC", "name": "Amundi MSCI New Energy UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.685, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.985, "architecture_energy": 24.12, "architecture_maturity": 51.663, "architecture_confidence": 82.52, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.7, "rotation_up": 17.02, "upward_expansion": 45.34, "deceleration": 83.78, "rotation_down": 46.89, "downward_expansion": 37.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.831333, 21.366636, 21.693657, 21.297335 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.99, "trend_reference": 20.582467, "distance_from_trend": 0.0198, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.760564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.422032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.24715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14362, "excess_performance": 0.090309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0198, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.422032, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062471, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14362, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35223, "relative_activity": 1.048135, "balance": 0.858947, "dry_up": 1.383423, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049723, "annualized_volatility": 0.226545, "from_high_reference": -0.1028, "from_low_reference": 0.528101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.582467, "fair_value_reference": 14.760564, "structural_low": 17.973, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.125547, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.106401, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125547, "worst_return": 0.125547, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.171565, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.103033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171565, "worst_return": 0.171565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031978, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.436353, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054924, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015727, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.513, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, 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"close": 20.965, "volume": 35322, "typical_volume": 33886.05, "trend": 20.3227, "fair_value": 14.694468, "relative_strength": 11.601144, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.653111, "energy": 21.557737, "activity_lines": [ 21.343, 21.850927, 21.820119, 21.255338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.424999, "volume": 77479, "typical_volume": 34534.15, "trend": 20.441333, "fair_value": 14.723904, "relative_strength": 6.436122, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.203212, "energy": 27.248075, "activity_lines": [ 20.928666, 21.538218, 21.732886, 21.261938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.99, "volume": 35223, "typical_volume": 33605.4, "trend": 20.582467, "fair_value": 14.760564, "relative_strength": 6.24715, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.9852, "energy": 24.119693, "activity_lines": [ 20.831333, 21.366636, 21.693657, 21.297335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }