{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72afb9ac-8a15-490b-a207-54c6009a971a", "symbol": "HRL-F95", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4A) S&P 500 Equal Weight Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.08, "architecture_energy": 63.401, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 55.532, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.9, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.26, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.421333, 87.825818, 2234.981524, 3753.122194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 89.74, "trend_reference": 5484.539, "distance_from_trend": -0.983638, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6728.045962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.762787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989036, "excess_performance": -1.017936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319646, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.169245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.803419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.883275, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16734, "relative_activity": 0.304799, "balance": 3.883275, "dry_up": 1.748112, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.648352, "annualized_volatility": 6.373835, "from_high_reference": -0.989463, "from_low_reference": 0.057631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5484.539, "fair_value_reference": 6728.045962, "structural_low": 84.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.025533, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.007679, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.098306, "worst_return": -0.082729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033723, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000125, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.131855, "worst_return": -0.151493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066878, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.001646, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.149676, "worst_return": -0.155224, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 63234.8, "trend": 6009.333, "fair_value": 6807.999936, "relative_strength": -98.88605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.972343, "energy": 68.005924, "activity_lines": [ 87.363333, 541.837091, 3118.709238, 4500.240516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.44, "volume": 17596, "typical_volume": 59391.65, "trend": 5749.181, "fair_value": 6767.919423, "relative_strength": -98.808304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.533889, "energy": 67.310507, "activity_lines": [ 87.723333, 240.553636, 2658.175, 4118.247419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.74, "volume": 16734, "typical_volume": 54901.8, "trend": 5484.539, "fair_value": 6728.045962, "relative_strength": -98.762787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.080109, "energy": 63.401217, "activity_lines": [ 88.421333, 87.825818, 2234.981524, 3753.122194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }