{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72b381b1-9d6a-4a75-bd36-15bd2dd3dfd0", "symbol": "DRSK", "name": "APTUS DEFINED RISK ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.752, "architecture_energy": 19.57, "architecture_maturity": 42.991, "architecture_confidence": 76.591, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.45, "rotation_up": 26.3, "upward_expansion": 47.56, "deceleration": 82.42, "rotation_down": 33.08, "downward_expansion": 27.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.604, 28.641257, 28.684492, 28.507537 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.02, "trend_reference": 28.307411, "distance_from_trend": 0.025173, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.225856, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.889118, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040334, "excess_performance": -0.085291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025173, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002673, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040334, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.263741, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1111514, "relative_activity": 1.797778, "balance": 1.263741, "dry_up": 1.286512, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014934, "annualized_volatility": 0.089752, "from_high_reference": -0.019366, "from_low_reference": 0.072958 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.307411, "fair_value_reference": 26.225856, "structural_low": 27.046727, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.00468, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010674, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.033438, "worst_return": -0.020867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035797, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.057342, "worst_return": -0.025495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015897, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096703, "worst_return": -0.02537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"up", "direction": 36.878728, "energy": 22.825831, "activity_lines": [ 28.776132, 28.829725, 28.633513, 28.444305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.535, "volume": 712427, "typical_volume": 582364.75, "trend": 28.295227, "fair_value": 26.113089, "relative_strength": -7.670038, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.643934, "energy": 18.113935, "activity_lines": [ 28.689409, 28.768692, 28.650075, 28.460517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.15, "volume": 644632, "typical_volume": 585170.15, "trend": 28.279187, "fair_value": 26.147208, "relative_strength": -8.108767, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.337325, "energy": 13.946576, "activity_lines": [ 28.49569, 28.64564, 28.627772, 28.451147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.42, "volume": 713080, "typical_volume": 588142.1, "trend": 28.286771, "fair_value": 26.184101, "relative_strength": -7.923387, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.418766, "energy": 16.326233, "activity_lines": [ 28.436333, 28.584678, 28.630133, 28.460232 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.02, "volume": 1111514, "typical_volume": 618271.15, "trend": 28.307411, "fair_value": 26.225856, "relative_strength": -8.889118, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.751769, "energy": 19.570235, "activity_lines": [ 28.604, 28.641257, 28.684492, 28.507537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }