{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72b67c52-a01a-4abd-b75b-e21b7ddf8385", "symbol": "KSM-F143", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) MSCI World Dollar Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.409, "architecture_energy": 63.856, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.234, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.19, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 50.25, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.006667, 120.416364, 3142.970952, 5218.032043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 123.9, "trend_reference": 7580.07, "distance_from_trend": -0.983655, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8882.186538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.771757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988918, "excess_performance": -1.017818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983655, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.263655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.82284, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.347677, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 599, "relative_activity": 0.350631, "balance": 1.347677, "dry_up": 0.409898, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.7719, "annualized_volatility": 6.373195, "from_high_reference": -0.989769, "from_low_reference": 0.055366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7580.07, "fair_value_reference": 8882.186538, "structural_low": 117.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01032, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004696, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.131671, "worst_return": -0.095402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042369, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049196, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.156865, "worst_return": -0.081451, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049698, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233079, "worst_return": -0.144642, "sufficient": false 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67.999591, "activity_lines": [ 119.773333, 763.62, 4371.805238, 6251.804516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.2, "volume": 277, "typical_volume": 1732.15, "trend": 7950.273333, "fair_value": 8930.058974, "relative_strength": -98.844899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.874716, "energy": 67.772131, "activity_lines": [ 119.64, 335.674545, 3731.162381, 5722.959355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.9, "volume": 599, "typical_volume": 1708.35, "trend": 7580.07, "fair_value": 8882.186538, "relative_strength": -98.771757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.408716, "energy": 63.856417, "activity_lines": [ 121.006667, 120.416364, 3142.970952, 5218.032043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }