{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72b85687-6b36-4f8d-882e-6a957f5f0de7", "symbol": "8429", "name": "Jinli Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.414, "architecture_energy": 51.485, "architecture_maturity": 85.945, "architecture_confidence": 90.895, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.96, "rotation_up": 18.01, "upward_expansion": 8.34, "deceleration": 45.24, "rotation_down": 64.9, "downward_expansion": 86.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.051333, 6.140727, 6.27681, 6.440151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.04, "trend_reference": 6.706, "distance_from_trend": -0.099314, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.123782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.337994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.477279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.187079, "excess_performance": -0.628451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099314, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.337994, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414773, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053009, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187079, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 764957, "relative_activity": 0.556257, "balance": 0.745431, "dry_up": 0.753467, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059857, "annualized_volatility": 0.202915, "from_high_reference": -0.30254, "from_low_reference": 0.011725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.706, "fair_value_reference": 9.123782, "structural_low": 5.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.017182, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029618, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.199143, "worst_return": -0.101747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.033541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064064, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.175549, "worst_return": -0.169579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023242, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039519, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.235722, "worst_return": -0.199297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 1393184.8, "trend": 6.813667, "fair_value": 9.179295, "relative_strength": -40.04704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.205983, "energy": 61.587431, "activity_lines": [ 6.120667, 6.240909, 6.358143, 6.535656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.05, "volume": 1244144, "typical_volume": 1387135.65, "trend": 6.756667, "fair_value": 9.150769, "relative_strength": -40.262857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.989342, "energy": 56.923106, "activity_lines": [ 6.073333, 6.190182, 6.315571, 6.486387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.04, "volume": 764957, "typical_volume": 1375186.75, "trend": 6.706, "fair_value": 9.123782, "relative_strength": -41.477279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.413504, "energy": 51.484913, "activity_lines": [ 6.051333, 6.140727, 6.27681, 6.440151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }