{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72bbd4ce-354e-4fc7-8295-310d19b56ff1", "symbol": "ILTB", "name": "ISHARES TRUST CORE LONG-TERM U S BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.31, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.279, "architecture_energy": 73.24, "architecture_maturity": 5.88, "architecture_confidence": 81.878, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.19, "rotation_up": 8.47, "upward_expansion": 16.69, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 73.41, "downward_expansion": 90.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.422547, 47.920165, 48.220183, 48.376802 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.47, "trend_reference": 48.612363, "distance_from_trend": -0.023499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.595817, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.185592, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031497, "excess_performance": -0.157121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.950302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247347, "relative_activity": 0.915419, "balance": 0.950302, "dry_up": 0.73403, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016089, "annualized_volatility": 0.084667, "from_high_reference": -0.055565, "from_low_reference": 0.013867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.612363, "fair_value_reference": 46.595817, "structural_low": 46.820742, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.009013, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000164, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.128095, "worst_return": -0.073922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052251, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165841, "worst_return": -0.173989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057653, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.044066, "worst_return": -0.158733, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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286570.25, "trend": 48.771101, "fair_value": 46.536238, "relative_strength": -9.513557, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.611131, "energy": 25.821199, "activity_lines": [ 48.444326, 48.580291, 48.565641, 48.660873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.303635, "volume": 158684, "typical_volume": 270110.55, "trend": 48.717534, "fair_value": 46.551172, "relative_strength": -10.148687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.553977, "energy": 59.49643, "activity_lines": [ 47.982865, 48.358771, 48.447502, 48.566197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.975069, "volume": 220073, "typical_volume": 272655.85, "trend": 48.66316, "fair_value": 46.570593, "relative_strength": -11.404509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.514018, "energy": 76.600258, "activity_lines": [ 47.538823, 48.084244, 48.307456, 48.45378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.47, "volume": 247347, "typical_volume": 270200.85, "trend": 48.612363, "fair_value": 46.595817, "relative_strength": -13.185592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.278518, "energy": 73.239739, "activity_lines": [ 47.422547, 47.920165, 48.220183, 48.376802 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }