{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72be05a1-645b-4461-92f2-b776ddee3ee3", "symbol": "AYJ", "name": "Valneva SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.887, "architecture_energy": 61.959, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.811, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 29.46, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 49.59, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.2048, 2.225018, 2.311481, 2.606535 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.269, "trend_reference": 3.070467, "distance_from_trend": -0.261024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.544256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.359809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.28828, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.434447, "excess_performance": -0.499086, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.261024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145653, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.359809, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023493, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.402883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.434447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.963608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 269251, "relative_activity": 1.402635, "balance": 1.963608, "dry_up": 0.942557, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07794, "annualized_volatility": 0.758803, "from_high_reference": -0.572693, "from_low_reference": 0.11171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.070467, "fair_value_reference": 3.544256, "structural_low": 2.041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.035124, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.044102, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.645815, "worst_return": -0.299544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.131415, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.174822, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.243509, "worst_return": -0.390239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.066205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.249237, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.198331, "worst_return": -0.348688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -65.849387, "energy": 85.055372, "activity_lines": [ 2.3026, 2.367109, 2.579843, 2.94552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.194, "volume": 141247, "typical_volume": 219609.5, "trend": 3.289633, "fair_value": 3.661058, "relative_strength": -40.89732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.824807, "energy": 87.768835, "activity_lines": [ 2.2612, 2.330982, 2.502571, 2.87157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.157, "volume": 120805, "typical_volume": 199934.9, "trend": 3.245333, "fair_value": 3.632, "relative_strength": -41.145172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.253185, "energy": 86.040141, "activity_lines": [ 2.2224, 2.2904, 2.433814, 2.798497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.113, "volume": 116491, "typical_volume": 196616.75, "trend": 3.1943, "fair_value": 3.601827, "relative_strength": -42.576693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.169767, "energy": 68.15151, "activity_lines": [ 2.1788, 2.246255, 2.373262, 2.725443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.22, "volume": 217189, "typical_volume": 191492.35, "trend": 3.137767, "fair_value": 3.573045, "relative_strength": -40.555259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.186194, "energy": 64.295411, "activity_lines": [ 2.183267, 2.228691, 2.334429, 2.662585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.269, "volume": 269251, "typical_volume": 191960.8, "trend": 3.070467, "fair_value": 3.544256, "relative_strength": -40.28828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.886925, "energy": 61.958906, "activity_lines": [ 2.2048, 2.225018, 2.311481, 2.606535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }