{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72bfe747-584c-4f1b-a975-48e08a59c050", "symbol": "FJPR", "name": "Fidelity Japan Equity Research Enhanced UCITS ETF JPY Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.905, "architecture_energy": 41.15, "architecture_maturity": 65.026, "architecture_confidence": 88.475, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.62, "rotation_up": 41.68, "upward_expansion": 62.79, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.43, "downward_expansion": 21.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.101467, 8.103145, 8.005624, 7.868482 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.344, "trend_reference": 7.712767, "distance_from_trend": 0.081843, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.191981, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347549, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.59669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112088, "excess_performance": 0.029205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081843, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.347549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025967, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112088, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.379622, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 7.379622, "dry_up": 2.018965, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022586, "annualized_volatility": 0.204206, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.288649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.712767, "fair_value_reference": 6.191981, "structural_low": 7.005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027355, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.016838, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.064525, "worst_return": -0.023805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040331, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148037, "worst_return": 0.031159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05933, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.030319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115762, "worst_return": 0.002899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.121135, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187922, "worst_return": 0.054348, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032137, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004051, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046207, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148155, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.173222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045221, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.877, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 816.85, "trend": 4.860117, "fair_value": 4.87781, "relative_strength": 7.51813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.75685, 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7582.6, "trend": 7.611433, "fair_value": 6.134288, "relative_strength": -1.23461, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.915813, "energy": 52.731466, "activity_lines": [ 8.094133, 8.082255, 7.906967, 7.782043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.944, "volume": 41288, "typical_volume": 9647.0, "trend": 7.6433, "fair_value": 6.152103, "relative_strength": -0.636126, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.59137, "energy": 41.617193, "activity_lines": [ 8.029067, 8.064291, 7.92921, 7.803499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.983, "volume": 48134, "typical_volume": 12053.7, "trend": 7.676467, "fair_value": 6.170795, "relative_strength": -0.386063, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.138259, "energy": 29.636109, "activity_lines": [ 8.003133, 8.051836, 7.952238, 7.825415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.344, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12053.7, "trend": 7.712767, "fair_value": 6.191981, "relative_strength": 2.59669, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.905347, "energy": 41.149515, "activity_lines": [ 8.101467, 8.103145, 8.005624, 7.868482 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }