{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72cae887-44f0-4493-b9d4-978ca844ab53", "symbol": "002297", "name": "Hunan Boyun New Materials Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.386, "architecture_energy": 33.442, "architecture_maturity": 47.72, "architecture_confidence": 43.567, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.45, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 19.1, "deceleration": 68.48, "rotation_down": 63.6, "downward_expansion": 41.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.909334, 20.888182, 21.947905, 20.377398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.200001, "trend_reference": 18.092333, "distance_from_trend": 0.061223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.416474, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.03898, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 32.814757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.648069, "excess_performance": 0.640669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.292987, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.03898, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.110469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.328148, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.68421, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.648069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.510202, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335655644, "relative_activity": 0.946168, "balance": 1.510202, "dry_up": 0.751224, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.240465, "annualized_volatility": 1.125534, "from_high_reference": -0.426523, "from_low_reference": 1.421185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.092333, "fair_value_reference": 9.416474, "structural_low": 10.09, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01163, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010492, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.34153, "worst_return": -0.134091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001017, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000536, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.188525, "worst_return": -0.288542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287247, "worst_return": -0.298047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012251, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131443, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 26.82, 25.647091, 23.02381, 20.42686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.16, "volume": 275159879, "typical_volume": 344017403.35, "trend": 17.535667, "fair_value": 9.237628, "relative_strength": 34.453043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.310785, "energy": 25.808855, "activity_lines": [ 23.986667, 24.358182, 22.855667, 20.484258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.83, "volume": 253846717, "typical_volume": 343462011.6, "trend": 17.749333, "fair_value": 9.294936, "relative_strength": 22.801469, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.955804, "energy": 17.195511, "activity_lines": [ 20.995333, 22.964728, 22.541715, 20.438731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.45, "volume": 201331910, "typical_volume": 343609592.75, "trend": 17.851333, "fair_value": 9.343013, "relative_strength": 13.804434, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.868094, "energy": 30.272902, "activity_lines": [ 18.312667, 21.484364, 22.074953, 20.290387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 335655644, "typical_volume": 354752660.8, "trend": 18.092333, "fair_value": 9.416474, "relative_strength": 32.814757, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.385561, "energy": 33.44167, "activity_lines": [ 17.909334, 20.888182, 21.947905, 20.377398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }