{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72ceb57e-0803-450a-8970-4a65321a776f", "symbol": "SOLR", "name": "Invesco Solar Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.553, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.255, "architecture_energy": 57.547, "architecture_maturity": 10.35, "architecture_confidence": 79.979, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.17, "rotation_up": 14.34, "upward_expansion": 26.95, "deceleration": 50.14, "rotation_down": 71.78, "downward_expansion": 56.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.626667, 24.718182, 26.148905, 26.127 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.83, "trend_reference": 25.884667, "distance_from_trend": -0.079378, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.924596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.339305, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050787, "excess_performance": -0.221678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079378, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052008, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272248, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.926353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16788, "relative_activity": 0.795269, "balance": 0.926353, "dry_up": 1.211496, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085978, "annualized_volatility": 0.349458, "from_high_reference": -0.294553, "from_low_reference": 0.460709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.884667, "fair_value_reference": 20.924596, "structural_low": 21.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.322688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.250256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165852, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.364526, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03975, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"activity_lines": [ 25.49, 26.943091, 27.073333, 26.61072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.790001, "volume": 12883, "typical_volume": 21667.45, "trend": 25.8585, "fair_value": 21.010462, "relative_strength": -10.090512, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.305947, "energy": 46.053869, "activity_lines": [ 24.758667, 26.179727, 26.801929, 26.480688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.389999, "volume": 20347, "typical_volume": 21766.4, "trend": 25.843667, "fair_value": 20.959468, "relative_strength": -16.021684, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.555625, "energy": 64.230042, "activity_lines": [ 23.828333, 25.252727, 26.399976, 26.256914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.83, "volume": 16788, "typical_volume": 21109.85, "trend": 25.884667, "fair_value": 20.924596, "relative_strength": -13.339305, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.255077, "energy": 57.546587, "activity_lines": [ 23.626667, 24.718182, 26.148905, 26.127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }