{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72d22ecd-baec-4a66-b836-d89c3035d459", "symbol": "4154", "name": "Raku Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.761, "architecture_energy": 40.286, "architecture_maturity": 14.672, "architecture_confidence": 94.452, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.38, "rotation_up": 17.71, "upward_expansion": 6.17, "deceleration": 45.23, "rotation_down": 54.11, "downward_expansion": 79.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.816667, 11.991818, 12.501667, 12.677957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.2, "trend_reference": 12.956667, "distance_from_trend": -0.0584, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.076644, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.325096, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.513078, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082707, "excess_performance": -0.524079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081522, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.325096, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.425131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039742, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082707, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122007, "relative_activity": 1.196549, "balance": 0.765087, "dry_up": 0.497947, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104351, "annualized_volatility": 0.654782, "from_high_reference": -0.388471, "from_low_reference": 0.299255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.956667, "fair_value_reference": 18.076644, "structural_low": 9.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.007554, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.045552, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.922, "worst_return": -0.526882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013289, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.17389, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.240816, "worst_return": -0.413255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054945, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.124767, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.77551, "worst_return": -0.405458, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 12.35, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 110293.85, "trend": 13.288333, "fair_value": 18.173534, "relative_strength": -42.672527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.907063, "energy": 49.734321, "activity_lines": [ 12.14, 12.503636, 12.891667, 12.964194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.5, "volume": 44087, "typical_volume": 106179.2, "trend": 13.138333, "fair_value": 18.125159, "relative_strength": -44.779679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.579372, "energy": 53.152502, "activity_lines": [ 11.89, 12.262727, 12.751905, 12.848817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 28000, "typical_volume": 106628.4, "trend": 13.01, "fair_value": 18.10057, "relative_strength": -45.948024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.869601, "energy": 53.10319, "activity_lines": [ 11.67, 12.029091, 12.58619, 12.730215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.2, "volume": 122007, "typical_volume": 101965.75, "trend": 12.956667, "fair_value": 18.076644, "relative_strength": -42.513078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.761436, "energy": 40.285931, "activity_lines": [ 11.816667, 11.991818, 12.501667, 12.677957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }