{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72d2a5dc-d9d0-4491-9d90-ed533bf97cba", "symbol": "SPOL", "name": "SpareBank 1 \u00d8stlandet", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.54, "architecture_energy": 5.491, "architecture_maturity": 12.222, "architecture_confidence": 75.873, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.34, "rotation_up": 37.11, "upward_expansion": 27.04, "deceleration": 38.69, "rotation_down": 25.94, "downward_expansion": 27.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 193.122665, 192.484, 193.336858, 193.869826 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 191.899994, "trend_reference": 193.588875, "distance_from_trend": -0.008724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.710538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.020979, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004139, "excess_performance": -0.120855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008724, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.28837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152512, "relative_activity": 0.885077, "balance": 1.28837, "dry_up": 0.719267, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028733, "annualized_volatility": 0.198067, "from_high_reference": -0.090521, "from_low_reference": 0.183491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 193.588875, "fair_value_reference": 148.710538, "structural_low": 184.173247, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022113, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.109375, "worst_return": -0.091177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009554, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121053, "worst_return": -0.102941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.140431, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160707, "worst_return": 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0.083861, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086288, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.310041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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"activity_lines": [ 191.920001, 191.756002, 194.065028, 193.929104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 193.440002, "volume": 113770, "typical_volume": 263119.15, "trend": 193.225304, "fair_value": 146.991102, "relative_strength": -4.831804, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.265981, "energy": 5.846954, "activity_lines": [ 192.669335, 192.079638, 193.887345, 193.95331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 191.5, "volume": 111715, "typical_volume": 256786.55, "trend": 193.29301, "fair_value": 147.551206, "relative_strength": -7.856001, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.701675, "energy": 7.81855, "activity_lines": [ 192.557334, 192.005456, 193.56111, 193.842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 195.220001, "volume": 117765, "typical_volume": 244519.45, "trend": 193.395676, "fair_value": 148.138335, "relative_strength": -6.294477, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.399757, "energy": 9.201491, "activity_lines": [ 193.609334, 192.562183, 193.606714, 193.966322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 191.899994, "volume": 152512, "typical_volume": 172314.95, "trend": 193.588875, "fair_value": 148.710538, "relative_strength": -8.020979, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.539707, "energy": 5.49131, "activity_lines": [ 193.122665, 192.484, 193.336858, 193.869826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }