{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72d73dd6-2cf9-490f-a179-d483c3ff919e", "symbol": "TE", "name": "Technip Energies N.V.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -57.035, "architecture_energy": 70.449, "architecture_maturity": 19.684, "architecture_confidence": 76.754, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.38, "rotation_up": 17.09, "upward_expansion": 22.98, "deceleration": 43.35, "rotation_down": 75.21, "downward_expansion": 64.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.276, 32.505091, 34.086657, 34.350007 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.219999, "trend_reference": 34.217492, "distance_from_trend": -0.146051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.225715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.474587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082217, "excess_performance": -0.135528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009799, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082217, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481951, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2585272, "relative_activity": 1.315098, "balance": 0.481951, "dry_up": 1.192473, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074379, "annualized_volatility": 0.386117, "from_high_reference": -0.298695, "from_low_reference": 0.084632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.217492, "fair_value_reference": 27.225715, "structural_low": 26.940001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.032189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044165, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.028308, "worst_return": -0.092686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.091569, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.108907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.091569, "worst_return": -0.091569, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.035176, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.061802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035176, "worst_return": 0.035176, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05593, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.220094, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092686, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164286, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.662745, "energy": 35.161667, "activity_lines": [ 34.054667, 34.668845, 35.464663, 35.022012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.080002, "volume": 1650467, "typical_volume": 1973842.45, "trend": 34.283755, "fair_value": 26.998441, "relative_strength": -8.554246, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.760695, "energy": 47.134123, "activity_lines": [ 33.598667, 34.296728, 35.245753, 34.949575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.360001, "volume": 1573498, "typical_volume": 1933200.3, "trend": 34.382107, "fair_value": 27.093353, "relative_strength": -5.193273, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.684374, "energy": 33.248327, "activity_lines": [ 33.744001, 34.207637, 35.160903, 34.954494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.120001, "volume": 3567610, "typical_volume": 1988205.8, "trend": 34.327449, "fair_value": 27.166419, "relative_strength": -17.724374, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.895447, "energy": 57.280806, "activity_lines": [ 32.562668, 33.37891, 34.664308, 34.67952 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.219999, "volume": 2585272, "typical_volume": 1965839.75, "trend": 34.217492, "fair_value": 27.225715, "relative_strength": -21.474587, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.034774, "energy": 70.449408, "activity_lines": [ 31.276, 32.505091, 34.086657, 34.350007 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }