{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72d90262-9afa-4396-b5b2-c955903e8cb8", "symbol": "ADV", "name": "Advantage Solutions Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.088, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.965, "architecture_energy": 8.336, "architecture_maturity": 47.149, "architecture_confidence": 69.37, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.11, "rotation_up": 21.67, "upward_expansion": 49.57, "deceleration": 81.68, "rotation_down": 30.34, "downward_expansion": 25.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.897333, 36.823636, 37.001667, 33.975989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.17, "trend_reference": 29.708333, "distance_from_trend": -0.051781, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.071202, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.523118, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.558389, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.482437, "excess_performance": 0.294983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187166, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.523118, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205584, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.482437, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.843771, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 925163, "relative_activity": 1.131697, "balance": 0.843771, "dry_up": 0.850458, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.308037, "annualized_volatility": 1.132998, "from_high_reference": -0.474685, "from_low_reference": 1.302882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.708333, "fair_value_reference": 59.071202, "structural_low": 12.2325, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.335333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.291532, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.335333, "worst_return": -0.335333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.433867, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.444268, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.433867, "worst_return": -0.433867, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.1096, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.186941, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.1096, "worst_return": -0.1096, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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39.464, 38.887636, 34.309274, 30.613672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.86, "volume": 866572, "typical_volume": 1746616.05, "trend": 27.307417, "fair_value": 59.946458, "relative_strength": 7.567738, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.785645, "energy": 39.40384, "activity_lines": [ 39.469333, 39.024909, 35.236798, 31.396312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.89, "volume": 919137, "typical_volume": 1704196.8, "trend": 27.88875, "fair_value": 59.798317, "relative_strength": 9.063994, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.567739, "energy": 38.111984, "activity_lines": [ 39.722, 39.25, 36.146417, 32.208091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.22, "volume": 913058, "typical_volume": 1532383.25, "trend": 28.401333, "fair_value": 59.642676, "relative_strength": 9.463946, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.804177, "energy": 36.539908, "activity_lines": [ 39.342, 39.118182, 36.780833, 32.874624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.44, "volume": 512513, "typical_volume": 1275797.1, "trend": 28.874833, "fair_value": 59.46601, "relative_strength": 6.779927, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.797665, "energy": 23.943749, "activity_lines": [ 38.434, 38.691091, 37.125905, 33.393247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.24, "volume": 430265, "typical_volume": 1049901.95, "trend": 29.502667, "fair_value": 59.33774, "relative_strength": 14.438299, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.061635, "energy": 22.770684, "activity_lines": [ 38.350667, 38.735818, 37.64031, 34.061968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.17, "volume": 925163, "typical_volume": 817500.7, "trend": 29.708333, "fair_value": 59.071202, "relative_strength": -20.558389, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.964995, "energy": 8.336051, "activity_lines": [ 34.897333, 36.823636, 37.001667, 33.975989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }