{ "ticker": { "uuid": "72de1389-0f91-46d3-b6d7-1159872723ca", "symbol": "KWEB", "name": "KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF USD", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.065, "architecture_energy": 19.432, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.998, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.75, "rotation_up": 43.25, "upward_expansion": 22.98, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 13.05, "downward_expansion": 52.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.9133, 20.243693, 20.362057, 20.877957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.638599, "trend_reference": 21.968963, "distance_from_trend": -0.015038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.789567, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006928, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.275204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157841, "excess_performance": -0.274504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006928, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212752, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49994, "relative_activity": 0.748224, "balance": 0.525349, "dry_up": 1.10371, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050945, "annualized_volatility": 0.284538, "from_high_reference": -0.299388, "from_low_reference": 0.242933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.968963, "fair_value_reference": 21.789567, "structural_low": 17.4093, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.003565, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.022251, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.281205, "worst_return": -0.247244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016337, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.222905, "worst_return": -0.219287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041109, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028418, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.392259, "worst_return": -0.37171, "sufficient": true 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19.583911, 20.299069, 21.140812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.926001, "volume": 71242, "typical_volume": 61616.95, "trend": 22.32472, "fair_value": 21.770084, "relative_strength": -27.05945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.472401, "energy": 34.233337, "activity_lines": [ 19.74126, 19.602315, 20.211175, 20.972751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.363001, "volume": 128367, "typical_volume": 66570.9, "trend": 22.146187, "fair_value": 21.774081, "relative_strength": -21.957816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.117818, "energy": 21.50761, "activity_lines": [ 20.3931, 19.907868, 20.270243, 20.910705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.638599, "volume": 49994, "typical_volume": 66816.9, "trend": 21.968963, "fair_value": 21.789567, "relative_strength": -21.275204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.064758, "energy": 19.431964, "activity_lines": [ 20.9133, 20.243693, 20.362057, 20.877957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }